arXiv:2608.14716nlin.CDcs.LG2026-08

用柯普曼理论统一检测复杂系统突变前兆,兼顾分岔与速率驱动型突变。

Koopman early warning signals for bifurcation and rate-induced tipping

论文配图:Koopman early warning signals for bifurcation and rate-induced tipping
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于柯普曼残差分解,融合时变控制变量构建预警框架。
  • 在速率驱动突变场景中表现优于传统指标,可识别非稳定性突变前兆。
  • 适用于海洋环流等高维系统,深层学习嵌入提升检测精度。

复杂系统中的突变通常伴随早期预警信号,但多数指标依赖临界减速概念,无法推广至无局部失稳的速率驱动型突变。在随机、非自治系统中,内生变率与时变变量相互作用导致突变难以预测。本文基于柯普曼算子理论,为随机系统中的分岔与速率驱动型突变构建统一预警框架。方法通过残差柯普曼模态分解测量真实动力学与其有限维近似的偏差,并将可观测空间扩展以包含时变控制变量,实现控制设置下的延伸。在理想化案例中,该指标在分岔点附近恢复预期特征,在经典指标失效的速率驱动区域显著提升检测能力。进一步表明,深度学习学习的嵌入优于预设词典,尤其在高维情形下表现更优。应用于大西洋经向翻转环流模拟,柯普曼基指标成功区分突变与非突变轨迹,并揭示突变前具有可解释的谱特征。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Abrupt transitions in complex systems are often preceded by early warning signals. However, most indicators rely on the notion of critical slowing down and do not generally extend to rate-induced tipping where transitions can occur without local loss of stability. This is problematic in stochastic, nonautonomous systems where internal variability and time-varying variables interact to shape tipping onset. We use Koopman operator theory to develop a unified early warning framework for both bifurcation and rate-induced tipping in stochastic systems. Our approach builds on residual Koopman mode decomposition that measures discrepancies between dynamics and their finite-dimensional approximation, and extends it to the control setting by augmenting the observable space with time-varying control variables. In idealized examples, the resulting indicators recover expected signatures near bifurcation points and improve detection in rate-induced regimes where classical indicators fail. We further show that learned embeddings through deep learning outperform prescribed dictionaries, especially in a high-dimensional setting. Applied to simulations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, our Koopman-based indicators distinguish tipping from non-tipping trajectories and reveal interpretable spectral signatures prior to critical transition.

突变预警柯普曼算子非自治系统海洋环流

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