arXiv:2608.14935physics.ao-phcs.LG2026-08

用机器学习改进海上风浪通量预测,效果优于传统物理模型。

Developing an Offshore Machine Learning Surface Layer Scheme

  • 用神经网络和随机森林拟合海上通量关系,输入风速梯度等垂直参数。
  • 热通量模型普遍优于物理模型,动量通量在数据多时表现更佳。
  • 融合多站点数据提升小样本站点表现,风速和温差是关键影响因子。

海气之间的湍流通量通常通过经验参数化关系描述。本文测试了机器学习方法在近海环境下的适用性,使用了三个近海观测站点的数据:马萨诸塞湾海岸观测站(MVCO)的海气相互作用塔、FINO1科研平台以及加州沿海部署的CASPER-West FLIP研究船。采用神经网络(NN)和随机森林(RF)两种机器学习方法,因各站点有不同高度的观测数据,将垂直差异作为梯度输入。针对动量通量和感热通量分别构建模型。单站点训练的机器学习模型在多数情况下与针对近海优化的物理模型COARE-3相当,甚至更优;热通量模型整体表现优于物理参数化方法,但动量通量结果不一,仅在训练数据最多的MVCO站点表现优于COARE-3。将该站点模型外推至其他站点时性能下降。而合并三个站点数据训练的模型,在数据较少的站点上表现出改善。变量重要性分析显示,风速对动量通量最重要,温度梯度对热通量最重要。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Turbulent fluxes between the surface and the atmosphere are typically parameterized using empirically fit relationships. Here we test machine learning techniques for fitting the relationship for the offshore environment. To do that, data from three offshore sites are used: the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO) air-sea interaction tower, the FINO1 research platform, and the CASPER-West FLIP research vessel deployed off the coast of California. Two machine learning methods were employed: Neural Networks (NN) and Random Forests (RF). Because the observational sites had towers with measurements at different levels, the vertical differences were input as gradients. Models were built for both momentum flux and heat flux. ML models trained at the individual sites were competitive with and in some cases, better than the physically-based COARE-3 model tailored to offshore fluxes. The heat flux ML models generally outperformed the physics-based parameterizations for most metrics, but the results were mixed for momentum flux, with only the site with the most training data (MVCO) producing results better than COARE-3. When the ML models from that site were applied to the other sites, results were degraded from using data from the site being tested. ML models built from data combined from the three sites generally showed improvements for the sites with less available training data. When assessing which variables were most important, the wind speed was most important for momentum flux and temperature gradient for heat flux.

机器学习海气通量气象建模

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