arXiv:2608.15051cs.LGcs.SY2026-08

用混合专家架构的Mamba模型,统一实现逆变器暂态仿真与预测,更准更省参数。

A Unified Mamba--MoE Surrogate for Closed-Loop Simulation and Measurement-Window Forecasting of Inverter Transients

论文配图:A Unified Mamba--MoE Surrogate for Closed-Loop Simulation and Measurement-Window Forecasting of Inverter Transients
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 采用MoE路由机制,让不同专家处理不同任务,共享主干网络
  • 相比单一主干模型,全任务误差更低,参数减少13%
  • 适合电力系统暂态分析,尤其适用于硬件在环验证场景

本文提出一种基于Mamba架构的混合专家(MoE)路由代理模型,用于表征基于逆变器资源的暂态动态。该模型通过路由器网络为特定子网络(专家)分配数据相关权重,以实现两个任务:(i)闭环仿真与(ii)测量窗口内的暂态预测。一个带有任务条件和专家路由的统一Mamba主干同时支持两任务,替代了原先两个独立专用模型。各任务使用匹配目标函数进行优化,并引入自适应共形层生成置信区间。对于所研究的电网跟随型逆变器,该统一代理模型在保持与双专用Mamba模型相当低误差水平的同时,参数量减少了13%。预测区间在两项任务中均实现了94%-96%的经验边际覆盖率。在非平衡点附近的暂态动态中,相较无专家路由的共享Mamba主干,本模型在所有输出上均表现出更低误差。控制器硬件在环仿真验证了结果,表明仅用少量实测数据调整共享输出头即可显著降低预测误差。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This paper proposes a Mamba surrogate model with mixture-of-experts (MoE) routing to represent the transient dynamics of inverter-based resources. A Mamba surrogate model is a predictive machine learning model built on the Mamba architecture. MoE routing uses a router network to assign data-dependent weights to specialized subnetworks (experts). The resulting Mamba--MoE surrogate can perform two tasks: (i) closed-loop simulation and (ii) measurement-window forecasting of inverter transients. A single Mamba backbone with task conditioning and expert routing serves both tasks, replacing two separate specialists. Task-matched objectives fit each prediction form, and an adaptive conformal layer provides prediction intervals for both tasks. For the considered grid-following inverter, the unified surrogate model remains in the same low-error regime as a Mamba specialist pair while using 13% fewer parameters. The prediction intervals achieve 94--96% empirical mean marginal coverage across the two tasks. For transient dynamics---that is, beyond the vicinity of an equilibrium point---our surrogate model with MoE routing yields lower errors across all outputs in both tasks compared to a shared Mamba backbone without expert routing. A controller hardware-in-the-loop simulation validates our results and shows that adapting only the shared output head with limited measured data reduces held-out forecasting error.

电力系统暂态建模MambaMoE

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