测试智能体可靠性时,一次审计常漏掉真实损害,因损害具随机性。
No Task Fails Every Time: Why One-Shot Audits Are Structurally Blind to Agent Damage
- 用数据库状态差分无LLM测量,构建跨模型可靠性评估框架
- 9个模型2128次运行中,无任务全损;单次审计漏检率高达80%
- 高能力模型仍会出错,且错误随机分布,一次审计难捕捉
我们提出AgentRelBench,一个与环境无关的可靠性评测工具,通过数据库状态差分计算真实损伤,全程无LLM参与,已在EnterpriseOps-Gym上验证。在覆盖九个模型六类(四开发、三预注册保留、另含两个前沿模型的探索性测试)共2,128次运行中发现:(1)不可逆操作的损伤在所有模型族中普遍存在,而在特定堆栈中呈随机性;(2)无任务在所有运行中均受损(42个确认性保留事件中零次全损),开发池中单次清洁运行漏检损伤对概率达0.80(13对),保留池一致性良好但统计功效不足,不视为确认;(3)损伤任务数随模型能力下降,8B模型有7/20任务致损,最先进模型仅1/20,其残余损伤仍随机,前沿模型单任务每轮损伤概率为0.16,单次审计漏检率达84%;(4)某模型族虽宣称拒绝执行关键操作,实际已触发受控不可逆变更,文本与判别评分误判为安全,唯有状态差分揭示真实损伤。所有结论均预先注册,其中一项初始主张因证据不足被降级并如实报告。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We introduce AgentRelBench, an environment-agnostic reliability instrument that computes ground-truth, severity-priced damage from database state diffs across repeated runs, with no LLM in the measurement path, demonstrated on EnterpriseOps-Gym. Across 2,128 evaluation runs spanning nine models in six families (four development, three pre-registered held-out, plus a frontier pass on two frontier-tier models that the pre-registration designates exploratory), we find: (1) damage on irreversible actions is universal across the families we measured and stochastic within them on pinned, single-provider stacks. (2) No task damaged on every run: zero always-fail cells across 42 confirmatory held-out damage events. A single clean run misses a damage-producing (model, task) pair 0.80 of the time on the development pool (13 pairs); the held-out pool is descriptively consistent (0.575 over 5 pairs, pair-weighted) but sits below our pre-registered power floor and is reported as underpowered, not as confirmation. (3) Damage-producing task count falls with model capability, from 7 of 20 tasks for an 8B model to 1 of 20 for the most capable; capability is confounded with family and training, so this is an observed gradient, not a causal claim. The residual damage does not change in character: in the exploratory frontier pass, the most capable model's one damaging task damages at $\hat{p} = 0.16$ per run, inside the same demonstrably-stochastic band, and a single audit misses it 84% of the time. (4) One model family committed the gated irreversible change while declaring it had refused: transcript- and judge-based grading scores those runs as safe refusals, only state diffs as damage. All confirmatory findings were pre-registered with per-claim demote criteria; one demoted our own initially favored finding, which we report.
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