arXiv:2608.15309cs.AI2026-08

用生理世界模型预测真实事件对身体状态的影响,实现个性化健康管理。

Physiological World Models for Human State Transitions

论文配图:Physiological World Models for Human State Transitions
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建事件条件下的生理状态转换框架,整合多模态生理数据与行为上下文。
  • 提出人类状态转移标记,关联事件前后的生理轨迹与干预效果,支持多尺度预测。
  • 提供六项基准任务,适用于个体化干预设计和临床决策支持,强调安全与可解释性。

连续多模态感知使人体生理状态可在日常生活中持续监测,而非仅限于偶尔的临床访问。然而,多数健康人工智能系统仅用于识别当前状态、风险评估或单个生物标志物分析,未能直接建模生理状态如何随现实事件、行为、环境及干预措施变化。本文提出生理世界模型(PWM),一种面向全人层面的状态转变事件条件框架。引入人类状态转移标记(HumanState Transition Token),该结构化单元连接事件前的生理状态与事件/行动、相关上下文和干预信息、事件后的生理轨迹、观测结果及数据质量评分。描述了从状态表征到受限干预规划的四个能力层级,并配套四项数据采集与验证协议。同时提出六项基准任务,涵盖人类状态表示、跨多时间尺度预测、个体化响应预测、替代干预模拟、受限规划以及分布外情况下的可靠性。该框架为个性化健康管理、行为干预设计和医生监督决策支持提供了可行路径,明确区分预测与因果推断,突出不确定性、安全性、治理与使用边界。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Continuous multimodal sensing now allows human physiology to be observed throughout daily life rather than only during occasional clinical visits. However, most health artificial intelligence systems are designed to recognize current states, estimate risks or analyse individual biomarkers. They do not directly model how physiological states change in response to real-world events, behaviours, contexts and interventions. Here we propose the Physiological World Model (PWM), an event-conditioned framework for learning these changes at the level of the whole person. We introduce the HumanState Transition Token, a structured, quality-scored unit that connects the physiological state before an event with the event or action, relevant context and intervention information, the physiological trajectory after the event, observed outcomes and data quality. We describe four capability levels, from state representation to bounded intervention planning, together with four data acquisition and validation protocols. We also propose six benchmark tasks covering HumanState representation, forecasting across multiple timescales, individualized response prediction, simulation of alternative interventions, bounded planning and reliability under distribution shift. Together, this framework provides a practical path towards personalized health management, behavioural intervention design and clinician-supervised decision support, while clearly separating prediction from causal inference and making uncertainty, safety, governance and limits of use explicit.

生理建模状态预测个性化健康世界模型

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