arXiv:2608.15488cs.AI2026-08

用动态网络建模人群互动,预测公共事件发展态势。

A Network-driven Framework for Public Event Forecasting via Dynamic Interaction Network Evolution

论文配图:A Network-driven Framework for Public Event Forecasting via Dynamic Interaction Network Evolution
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将事件视为动态交互网络,融合网络科学与深度学习
  • 在13个真实数据集上达到超97%预测准确率
  • 适合智能城市、应急响应等需要预判人群行为的场景

有效的公共事件预测对智能服务系统至关重要,可实现主动风险管控、资源动态调配和及时决策。现实中,事件演化常由参与者之间的动态互动驱动。本文提出auto-ibDLM框架,将事件表示为动态交互网络,通过预测参与人数增长来推演事件演化。该框架采用混合表征学习策略:先利用网络科学指导的结构指标刻画网络演化,再通过自学习层生成紧凑鲁棒的潜在表示;随后使用基于GRU的时序预测模块捕捉时间依赖性并预测未来参与人数。在13个真实公共事件数据集及两个公开动态网络数据集上的实验表明,auto-ibDLM在预测精度和泛化能力上均显著优于现有先进方法,公共事件预测准确率超过97%。全面的分析验证了该混合表征学习策略的有效性及其可解释性。结果表明,auto-ibDLM为智能公共事件预测提供了有效且实用的解决方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Effective public event forecasting is essential for intelligent service systems, enabling proactive risk management, adaptive resource allocation, and timely decision-making. In many real-world scenarios, the evolution of public events is driven by dynamic interactions among participants. Motivated by this observation, this paper proposes auto-ibDLM, a network-driven deep learning framework that represents events as dynamic interaction networks and predicts public event evolution through participant growth forecasting. The proposed framework adopts a hybrid representation learning strategy that first represents network evolution using network science-informed structural metrics and subsequently transforms the resulting structural feature vectors into compact and robust latent representations through an auto-learning layer. A GRU-based temporal forecasting module is then employed to capture temporal dependencies and predict future participant growth. Extensive experiments on 13 real-world public event datasets and two publicly available dynamic network datasets demonstrate that auto-ibDLM consistently outperforms representative state-of-the-art methods in both forecasting accuracy and generalization capability, achieving over 97% accuracy in public event forecasting. Comprehensive experimental analyses further validate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid representation learning strategy and demonstrate its representation-level interpretability. These results indicate that auto-ibDLM provides an effective and practical solution for intelligent public event forecasting.

事件预测动态网络深度学习智能城市

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