用计算论证法找出冲突方能接受的和平协议区间
Argumentation for Common Ground: Finding Zones of Possible Agreement between Individuals in Conflict

- 构建双向论证框架,量化各方对协议条款的主观理由
- 通过融合双方论证,识别出双方都可接受的协议区域
- 在巴以冲突案例中验证,适用于政治谈判与公共政策
当公众对和平协议的接受度受争议叙事影响时,如何识别冲突社会间的共同基础?这种接受度不仅取决于协议包含或排除的条款,更关键的是公民对条款的主观推理。本文借助计算论证,提出一种新方法来识别冲突个体间可接受的和平协议区域(即ZOPA)。首先,构建一个量化的双向论证框架,用于刻画各方对和平协议的推理;随后展示如何融合这些框架,帮助谈判者识别互可接受的协议。为检验方法在真实场景中的适用性,研究聚焦巴以冲突——该议题长期受到政策界、实践者和公众关注,亟需分析极化公众推理的方法。通过理论分析及基于现有研究和大模型生成的调查数据的初步实验,结果表明,该框架能有效识别出基于公民推理的可行ZOPA,助力谈判者与冲突解决团队制定更可信的解决方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
How can common ground between societies in conflict be identified when citizens' acceptability of peace agreements is shaped by contested narratives? Such acceptability is mediated not only by the clauses that agreements include or exclude, but crucially by citizens' subjective reasoning concerning agreements' clauses. In this paper, we leverage computational argumentation to introduce a novel approach to identifying mutually acceptable agreements among individuals in conflict, i.e. a Zone of Possible Agreement (ZOPA). First, we introduce a quantitative bipolar argumentation framework tailored to represent each side's reasoning about peace agreements. We then show how merging these frameworks can enable negotiators to identify peace agreements that are mutually acceptable. To evaluate our approach under conditions of real-world relevance, we focus on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, where long-standing policy, practitioner and public interest underscores the demand for methods capable of analysing polarised public reasoning. We show how our framework identifies a ZOPA through theoretical analysis and preliminary experiments using survey data from both existing work and retrieved by a large language model. The results illustrate how argumentation can empower negotiators and conflict-resolution teams in mapping feasible ZOPAs grounded in citizens' reasoning.
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