arXiv:2608.15867cs.LGcs.AI2026-08

用正则化生成更真实的城市人口与出行数据,解决样本缺失和不合理组合问题。

Feasible and Novel Synthetic Population Generation with Tabular and Sequential Travel Attributes

论文配图:Feasible and Novel Synthetic Population Generation with Tabular and Sequential Travel Attributes
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 分两阶段生成:先合成人口属性,再生成出行序列,引入三项正则项提升合理性
  • 正则化使可行率提升2.1至3.7个百分点,新组合生成率提高6.6至10.0个百分点
  • 适合交通建模、城市规划者使用,尤其关注出行链与人口多样性

合成人口是活动基础出行需求模型的关键输入,但从有限调查数据生成真实人口仍具挑战。小样本易遗漏有效属性组合(即采样零),生成模型也可能产生不合理的结构零。此外,真实合成人口需同时捕捉静态社会人口属性与动态出行行为(如出行链)。本文提出一种正则化的两阶段生成框架:第一阶段采用带梯度惩罚的Wasserstein GAN,加入IGP、LDR、CLAP三项正则项,提升表格型人口合成的可行性、多样性和新颖性;第二阶段使用Transformer和LSTM-Attention模型,基于合成的人口特征生成出行时间、目的、方式等序列属性。引入新颖性与频次感知评估指标,检验是否恢复并以合理比例生成未见组合。结果表明,正则化模型在可行性、多样性和新颖性上均优于基线WGAN-GP,可行性提升2.1–3.7个百分点,新颖性提升6.6–10.0个百分点,F1得分提高6.3–8.6个百分点。序列生成中,LSTM-Attention更匹配出行长度分布,Transformer整体序列F1达90.6%(高于LSTM-Attention的89.1%)。跨阶段验证显示生成出行状态与出行链高度一致。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Synthetic populations are critical inputs for activity-based travel demand models, yet generating realistic populations from limited survey data remains challenging. Small samples miss valid attribute combinations, known as sampling zeros, and generative models may also produce infeasible structural zeros. Moreover, realistic synthetic populations must capture both static socio-demographic attributes and sequential travel behaviour, such as trip chains. This paper proposes a regularized two-stage generative framework to address these challenges, where regularization refers to additional loss terms that guide the generator toward broader valid coverage and fewer infeasible samples. In Stage 1, a Wasserstein GAN with gradient penalty is augmented with three regularization terms, IGP, LDR, and CLAP, to improve feasibility, diversity, and novelty in tabular population synthesis. In Stage 2, Transformer and LSTM-Attention models generate sequential travel attributes, including departure time, trip purpose, and travel mode, conditioned on the synthesized tabular profiles. We also introduce novelty and count-aware metrics to evaluate whether valid unseen combinations are recovered and generated in realistic proportions. Results show that regularized models outperform the vanilla WGAN-GP across feasibility, diversity, and novelty. Regularization increases feasibility by 2.1 to 3.7 percentage points and novelty by 6.6 to 10.0 percentage points, improving sampling-zero recovery without sacrificing feasibility. The F1 score improves by 6.3 to 8.6 percentage points. For sequential attributes, LSTM-Attention best matches the trip-length distribution, while Transformer achieves higher overall sequential F1, 90.6\% versus 89.1\%. Cross-stage validation confirms strong consistency between generated mobility status and generated trip chains.

人口合成出行行为生成模型交通规划

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