提出可靠性路由机制，决定可穿戴压力预测何时该显示结果
ReliaGate: Reliability Routing for Low-Stakes Wearable Stress Prediction
- 用事后校验分数融合多种信号判断预测是否可信
- 在多个数据集上表现优于传统方法，尤其在高覆盖率场景
- 适合关注输出可靠性与可用性的低风险应用开发
我们研究可穿戴压力系统应在何时呈现预测结果而非修改它。在低风险的反思与总结场景中，整体准确率不足，因为延迟输出可降低错误率，但可能使部分用户完全无信息可得。本文提出固定标签可靠性路由：在锁定分类器输出预定义的压力/非压力标签后，通过事后门控决定是否展示该不变标签或将其隐藏为不可用。ReliaGate整合了置信度、信号质量/可信度、一致性、训练标准化异常性及训练拟合几何特征等线索，构建事后正确性评分。我们在四个可穿戴数据集上使用被试独立交叉验证、验证选择路由、成对保留被试区间及聚合与个体分析进行评估。WESAD数据集点估计支持ReliaGate，UBFC-Phys主覆盖/风险区间也偏好它，而E4检查结果混合。ReliaGate提供了一个操作框架，用于研究表面标签误差、输出可用性及跨被试接受输出分布，无需修改标签，也不提供临床或有限样本风险保证。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
We study when a wearable stress system should surface a prediction rather than change it. In low-stakes reflection and summary settings, aggregate accuracy is insufficient because withholding can reduce error while leaving some people with little or no information. We formulate fixed-label reliability routing: after a locked classifier emits a protocol-defined stress/non-stress label, a post-hoc gate surfaces that unchanged label or withholds it as unavailable. ReliaGate assembles established confidence, signal-quality/trust, agreement, train-standardized atypicality, and train-fitted geometry cues into a post-hoc correctness score. We evaluate four wearable datasets using subject-disjoint folds, validation-selected routing, paired held-out-subject intervals, and pooled and per-subject analyses. WESAD point estimates favored ReliaGate, UBFC-Phys primary coverage/risk intervals favored ReliaGate, and E4 checks were mixed. ReliaGate provides an operational framework for studying surfaced-label error, output availability, and accepted-output distribution across subjects, without revising labels or providing clinical or finite-sample risk guarantees.
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