arXiv:2608.16155cs.LGcs.CE2026-08

提出可预测报价模型稳定性的实时评估框架,避免自毁式市场反馈。

REFLEX: Reflexive Equilibrium Fixed-point Learning for Endogenous eXchanges

论文配图:REFLEX: Reflexive Equilibrium Fixed-point Learning for Endogenous eXchanges
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用三个可测行为特征构建再训练稳定性指标
  • 模拟显示预测与实测稳定性误差仅8%
  • 帮助交易员避开因自我强化导致的市场崩溃

场外企业债市场中,做市商通过报价吸引交易,但更紧的价差会引来更多知情交易者,增加风险暴露。当做市商使用机器学习模型动态调整报价时,其训练数据来自自身报价带来的成交,形成自我强化的反馈循环。现有表现性预测理论虽有严格的稳定性条件,但依赖无法部署前测量的抽象目标函数属性。本文提出REFLEX框架,将不可观测量替换为三个可度量的做市行为特征:成交量对紧价差的响应强度、目标函数在最优解处的弯曲程度、价差收窄时知情交易流的增长速率。这些特征组合成一个预部署的再训练模数(retraining modulus),基于做市商自身报价与成交历史,可预测反复重训是否收敛或自我放大。仿真结果显示预测与实测稳定性偏差仅8%;当存在两个竞争做市商时,系统不稳定性提升1.74倍,三个则达3.16倍,符合预测。普通重训在模数1.21时即失稳,而结构锚定修正仍能收敛。基于36年公开市场数据校准,投资级和高收益债在危机阶段的稳定性余量分别下降约4.4倍和4.3倍。最终,REFLEX将抽象收敛定理转化为可操作的市场安全边际。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In over-the-counter corporate bond markets, dealers compete for client trades by quoting bid and ask prices. Tighter quotes attract more business, but also informed customers more likely to trade ahead of adverse price moves, leaving the dealer holding the risk. As dealers increasingly use machine learning to set quotes, they retrain these models on the trades their own quotes attract, creating a feedback loop in which each model reshapes the market that generates its next training data. The question is therefore not only whether a quoting model performs well, but whether the market it creates stays stable as the model learns from it. Existing performative prediction theory gives a sharp stability condition, yet expresses it through abstract properties of the learning objective a trading desk cannot measure before deployment. We introduce REFLEX, a framework that replaces those unobservable quantities with three measurable features of dealer behavior: how strongly trading volume responds to tighter quotes, how sharply the dealer's objective bends around its optimum, and how quickly informed flow increases as spreads narrow. REFLEX combines these into a single retraining modulus, a pre-deployment stability margin estimated from a desk's own quote and execution history that predicts whether repeated retraining will converge or amplify itself. In simulation, predicted and measured stability agree within 8%, and competing dealers increase instability by 1.74x with two and 3.16x with three, as predicted. Where ordinary retraining becomes unstable at modulus 1.21, a structurally anchored correction converges as blind retraining collapses. Calibrated over 36 years of public market data, stability headroom falls roughly 4.4x for investment grade and 4.3x for high yield from calm to crisis regimes. Ultimately, REFLEX turns an abstract convergence theorem into a market-level safety margin.

金融算法反馈循环市场稳定机器学习

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