arXiv:2608.16565cs.AIcs.LG2026-08

用概率电路提升AI在不确定下的推理效率,实现快速精确计算。

Probabilistic Circuits as Reasoning Machines in Artificial Intelligence (Part I)

论文配图:Probabilistic Circuits as Reasoning Machines in Artificial Intelligence (Part I)
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 引入概率电路结构,确保多项式时间完成各种推理任务。
  • 支持边际、条件、最可能解释等复杂查询的精确计算。
  • 适合需要高效可靠推理的AI系统开发者与研究者。

本累积博士后论文探讨了概率电路(PCs)作为人工智能中处理不确定性推理与学习的强大且可计算的框架。论文首先倡导以概率为核心语言构建AI,强调其与逻辑、信息论的联系,以及基于求和与乘积规则的推理简洁性;同时指出概率推理在几乎所有模型中均为NP难问题。概率电路通过结构约束,实现了对边缘分布、条件概率、最大可能解释、期望值等多种推理查询的多项式时间精确计算。本文整合了十年来在基础理论、算法发展及实证验证方面的研究,核心贡献包括概率电路的基础理论、基于贝叶斯的学习方法、可扩展实现与深度学习的集成、与不可行模型的混合建模,以及与符号机器学习范式的关联。本文为博士后论文第一部分,第二部分已分别发表于多个会议期刊(见第5章)。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This cumulative habilitation thesis studies probabilistic circuits (PCs) as a powerful and tractable framework for reasoning and learning under uncertainty in artificial intelligence (AI). It first advocates for probability as a core language for AI, emphasizing its connections to logic and information theory; the conceptual simplicity of probabilistic reasoning---based primarily on the sum and product rules; the parallels between probabilistic inference and human cognition; and the role of probability in optimal decision making. However, probability also faces significant computational challenges, as probabilistic inference is NP-hard in almost all probabilistic models. PCs address these challenges through structural constraints that ensure exact computation of a wide range of inference queries in polynomial time, such as marginals, conditionals, most probable explanations, expectations, and more advanced inference tasks. This thesis synthesizes a decade of research across foundations, algorithmic developments, and empirical validation of PCs. Key contributions highlighted in this work are foundational theory of PCs, Bayesian approaches for learning PCs, scalable implementations and integration with deep learning, hybrid models that combine PCs with intractable models, and connections with symbolic machine learning paradigms. This is the first part of my Habilitation Thesis. The second part is omitted, as it comprises the cumulative part of the thesis and has been published at various venues (see Chapter 5).

概率电路推理系统可计算性贝叶斯学习

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