arXiv:2608.16594cs.AI2026-08

用大模型分析病历报告,提升癌症生存预测准确率。

CACSurv: Concordance-Aligned Comparative Learning with Large Language Models for Cancer Survival Prediction

论文配图:CACSurv: Concordance-Aligned Comparative Learning with Large Language Models for Cancer Survival Prediction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将生存预测转为患者间相对预后排序,避免时间回归偏差。
  • 引入一致性奖励机制,让删失数据也能提供有效排序监督。
  • 在六个癌症队列上平均C指数达0.722,显著优于现有模型。

癌症生存预测有助于治疗规划、风险分层和随访管理。现有方法多依赖结构化临床变量、全幻灯片图像、基因组数据或多模态输入,而患者报告仍被忽视。本文研究基于报告的生存预测,报告整合了病理、临床和分子证据。大语言模型(LLM)可推理此类报告,但逐例时间回归存在双重不匹配:其一,评估生存需患者间有序比较,而独立时间预测不保证排序一致性;其二,删失患者的观察时间仅表明生存超过该时点,无法作为精确回归目标,但仍隐含与其他患者的时间顺序关系。为此,我们提出CACSurv——一种以一致性对齐的对比学习框架,用于报告中心的生存预测。该框架将生存建模重构为小队列对比推理,由LLM预测相对预后排序。我们设计了基于右删失下可比关系的一致性对齐奖励,使删失结果能提供排序监督而不依赖精确事件时间。推理阶段采用蒙特卡洛参考聚合,通过与采样参考患者比较,聚合出队列级排名。我们构建了TCGA-SurvReport基准,涵盖六种TCGA癌症队列。CACSurv在所有六种队列上均取得最高C指数,平均达0.722,比最强的已有生存模型高6.5个百分点,比最强的LLM时间回归基线高4.2个百分点。代码、模型与数据集将公开于https://github.com/xmed-lab/CACSurv。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Cancer survival prediction supports treatment planning, risk stratification, and follow-up management. Existing methods use structured clinical variables, whole-slide images, genomic profiles, or multimodal inputs, while patient reports remain underexplored. We study report-centric survival prediction using reports that organize pathological, clinical, and molecular evidence. Large language models (LLMs) can reason over such reports, but case-wise time regression introduces two mismatches. First, a formulation mismatch arises because survival evaluation depends on ordering comparable patients, whereas independent time predictions do not enforce ranking consistency. Second, a supervision mismatch arises because a censored patient's observed time indicates survival beyond that point and cannot serve as an exact regression target, although it still implies orderings relative to patients who died earlier. To address these mismatches, we propose CACSurv, a Concordance-Aligned Comparative framework for report-centric survival prediction. CACSurv reformulates survival modeling as mini-cohort comparative reasoning, where an LLM predicts relative prognostic orderings. We introduce concordance-aligned rewards derived from comparable relations under right censoring, enabling censored outcomes to provide ranking supervision without exact event-time targets. At inference, Monte Carlo Reference Aggregation compares each patient with sampled references and aggregates positions into a cohort-level ranking. We establish TCGA-SurvReport, a benchmark covering six TCGA cancer cohorts. CACSurv achieves the highest C-index on all six cohorts and an average C-index of 0.722, outperforming the strongest published survival model by 6.5 percentage points and the strongest LLM time-regression baseline by 4.2 percentage points. Our code, models, and dataset will be available at https://github.com/xmed-lab/CACSurv.

癌症预测大模型生存分析报告理解

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。