arXiv:2608.16856q-fin.RMcs.LG2026-08

通过链上交易重建现金流,精准评估去中心化借贷的还款能力。

zLend: A Dual-Scope Cash-Flow Reconstruction Framework for On-Chain Credit Underwriting

  • 从链上转账重建每日余额,区分总持仓与可支配流动性。
  • 发现钱包总资产高但稳定币储备不足时存在流动性错配风险。
  • 已上线生产环境,支持真实借贷决策,适合风控与金融工程研究者。

去中心化借贷缺乏信用局:还款能力必须完全基于公开链上活动推断,无法验证收入或负债记录。本文提出 zLend,一个已部署的现金流信用评估框架,通过原始代币转账重建钱包每日余额历史,并从中提取短期还款能力信号。重建过程对每个钱包进行两次:一次仅限固定稳定币篮子,一次覆盖所有可替代资产转移,前提在于钱包总代币持有量与实际可支配余额是不同概念,混淆会导致风险误判。从每条序列中提取流动性覆盖率(针对固定贷款规模)、现金流波动性与规律性、源自量化金融的回撤-恢复统计量,以及基于转账时间识别薪资类支付节奏的重复对手方检测器。两个视角对比后,即使总财富高但稳定币储备无法覆盖贷款规模的钱包也会被标记为流动性错配。我们形式化了整个流程,文档化了跨语言生产迁移至数值容差1e-9的黄金标准方法,并通过独立复现验证了层级函数参数敏感性(78/78字段断言精确一致)。层级分配主要由参考贷款金额决定,六笔参考钱包中有四笔在10至25,000美元贷款规模间改变层级;回撤与覆盖率标准作用于互斥钱包,彼此不包含;层级规则中无任一条件为冗余。zLend 已在生产环境中部署,通过第三方API接口影响真实借贷决策。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Decentralized lending lacks a credit bureau: a borrower's capacity to repay must be inferred entirely from public on-chain activity, without income verification or a liability record. This paper presents zLend, a deployed cash-flow underwriting framework that reconstructs a wallet's daily balance history from raw token transfers and derives short-duration repayment-capacity signals from it. The reconstruction is performed twice per wallet, once restricted to a fixed stablecoin basket and once over all fungible transfers, on the premise that a wallet's total token holdings and its liquid, spendable balance are distinct quantities whose conflation misprices risk. From each series we derive liquidity coverage against a fixed loan size, cash-flow volatility and regularity, a drawdown-and-recovery statistic adapted from quantitative finance, and a recurring-counterparty detector that identifies salary-like payment cadence from transfer timing alone. The two views are then compared: a wallet with large aggregate holdings whose stablecoin reserve rarely covers the loan size is flagged as a liquidity mismatch irrespective of total wealth. We specify the pipeline formally, document the golden-master methodology used to verify a cross-language production migration to numerical tolerance 1e-9, and characterize the tier function's parameter sensitivity with an independent reimplementation validated to exact agreement (78 of 78 field assertions) against the deployed system's reference fixtures. Tier assignment is governed predominantly by the reference loan size, with four of six reference wallets changing tier across loan sizes from USD 10 to USD 25,000; the drawdown and coverage criteria bind on disjoint wallets, so neither subsumes the other; and no criterion in the tier rule is inert. zLend is deployed in production, informing real lending decisions via third-party API integrations.

链上信贷现金流重建去中心化金融风险评估

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