arXiv:2608.17091cs.LG2026-08

对比六种深度学习模型,跨市场预测电价,验证小样本下的泛化能力。

Deep Learning for Cross-Border Electricity Price Forecasting: A Comparative Study

论文配图:Deep Learning for Cross-Border Electricity Price Forecasting: A Comparative Study
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建统一数据集,对比六类模型在多市场场景的电价预测表现。
  • 零样本/少样本下N-HiTS和NBEATSx表现最优,变压器模型需更多调参。
  • 强调特征选择与超参数调优的重要性,适合电力市场研究者参考。

公开电力市场数据为预测研究提供了宝贵资源,但缺乏标准化基准数据集,导致多数研究使用不同数据和评估指标,在孤立环境下比较方法,难以持续评估进展与对比先进模型。本文利用公开数据,对多种市场设置下的深度学习模型进行电价预测(EPF)的对比评估,旨在建立可复现的评价框架。尽管深度学习已用于日前电价预测,但以往研究多局限于单一市场、有限特征集或固定训练方式。本工作对比了六种深度学习模型——涵盖状态空间、MLP、RNN和基于Transformer的架构,重点考察其跨市场泛化能力。通过零样本、单样本和少样本学习模拟低数据目标市场条件。测试集聚焦2024年德国-卢森堡(DE-LU)竞价区,采用包含日历、历史价格和市场衍生特征的标准数据集。结果表明,N-HiTS和NBEATSx在低数据条件下表现竞争力,而基于Transformer的模型虽可达相近精度,但需更多适应与调参。模型性能也得益于精细的特征选择与超参数调优,最强模型间差异通常较小。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

While publicly available electricity market data presents a valuable resource for forecasting research, the field lacks established benchmark datasets for standardized comparison. As a result, many studies have relied on different datasets and metrics to evaluate methods in isolated settings, making it difficult to assess progress and compare state-of-the-art approaches consistently. In this work, we use public data to evaluate deep learning models for electricity price forecasting (EPF) across multiple market settings. Our goal is to establish a reproducible framework that enables a consistent evaluation of forecasting models. Although deep learning has been explored for day-ahead EPF, many prior studies are limited to single-market settings, narrow feature sets, or fixed training regimes. This work presents a comparative evaluation of six deep learning models--covering state-space, MLP, RNN, and Transformer-based architectures--emphasizing generalization across markets. We simulate low-data target-market conditions using zero-shot, one-shot, and few-shot learning. Our test set focuses on the Germany-Luxembourg (DE-LU) bidding zone in 2024 using a standardized dataset with calendar, historical price, and market-derived features. Our findings suggest that N-HiTS and NBEATSx perform competitively in limited-data scenarios, while transformer-based models can reach comparable accuracy but tend to require more adaptation and tuning. Model performance also benefits from careful feature selection and hyperparameter tuning, and we note that the differences between the strongest models are often small.

电价预测深度学习跨市场少样本

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