融合物理知识与实验数据,提升工程系统敏感性分析精度。
Information fusion and machine learning for sensitivity analysis using physics knowledge and experimental data

- 用物理约束损失函数和分阶段训练融合仿真与实测数据
- 深度神经网络使敏感性估计的不确定性更小,结果更可靠
- 适合需高精度敏感性分析的制造与环境建模场景
当使用计算模型(基于物理或数据驱动)进行工程系统敏感性分析时,敏感性估计受模型准确性和不确定性的制约。本文针对同时拥有物理模型和实验观测数据的情形,研究了融合物理知识的机器学习策略,以最大化敏感性估计的准确性。考虑了两种典型机器学习方法:深度神经网络(DNN)和高斯过程(GP),并探索了两种引入物理知识的途径:(i) 在模型损失函数中加入物理约束;(ii) 分别用仿真数据预训练、实验数据微调模型。每类方法构建四种不同模型,并将模型不确定性纳入Sobol指数计算。结果显示,具有更多参数和训练灵活性的DNN模型,相比GP模型,能获得更紧的敏感性估计区间。所提方法在增材制造和湖泊温度建模案例中得到验证。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
When computational models (either physics-based or data-driven) are used for the sensitivity analysis of engineering systems, the sensitivity estimate is affected by the accuracy and uncertainty of the model. This paper considers global sensitivity analysis (GSA) for situations where both a physics-based model and experimental observations are available, and investigates physics-informed machine learning strategies to effectively combine the two sources of information in order to maximize the accuracy of the sensitivity estimate. Two representative machine learning (ML) techniques are considered, namely, deep neural networks (DNN) and Gaussian process (GP) modeling, and two strategies for incorporating physics knowledge within these techniques are investigated, namely: (i) incorporating loss functions in the ML models to enforce physics constraints, and (ii) pre-training and updating the ML model using simulation and experimental data respectively. Four different models are built for each type (DNN and GP), and the uncertainties in these models are included in the Sobol indices computation. The DNN-based models, with many degrees of freedom in terms of model parameters and training options, are found to result in smaller bounds on the sensitivity estimates when compared to the GP-based models. The proposed methods are illustrated for additive manufacturing and lake temperature modeling examples.
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