arXiv:2608.17882cs.RO2026-08

构建标准化评估框架,系统测试轨迹预测模型在分布偏移下的鲁棒性。

ControlledShifts: Towards Standardizing Robustness Evaluation in Trajectory Prediction Under Distribution Shifts

论文配图:ControlledShifts: Towards Standardizing Robustness Evaluation in Trajectory Prediction Under Distribution Shifts
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于统一表征与分割策略,构建三类分布偏移基准
  • 提出综合性能与稳定性双维度的统一鲁棒性评分
  • 揭示不同模型在复杂环境中的泛化能力差异

轨迹预测是自动驾驶安全的核心,但基于学习的预测器在训练数据未覆盖场景下性能会急剧下降。现有方法多采用数据或测试时自适应来缓解分布偏移问题,但验证维度零散,缺乏统一评估标准。为此,我们提出 ControlledShifts 框架与基准套件,通过共享的表征-分割范式,将现有轨迹数据集系统划分为分布内(已见)与分布外(未见)部分:表征函数定义偏移轴,分割函数决定尾部区域保留与否。该套件包含三个针对拓扑与行为分布偏移的基准。为进一步整合多维性能指标,我们提出统一鲁棒性评分,从预测质量(相对性能提升)和预测稳定性(偏移下性能保持度)两个互补维度评估模型。通过基准测试主流 Transformer 架构,揭示了不同容量模型对潜在相关性与环境结构的处理差异。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Trajectory prediction is central to safety in autonomous driving, yet learning-based predictors tend to degrade sharply when encountering scenarios poorly represented by their training data. Many methods attempt to mitigate distribution shift degradation through data-centric or test-time adaptation approaches; however, they are typically validated along fragmented axes of generalization, leaving the field without a standardized way to compare robustness across shifts a model may encounter. To address this, we introduce ControlledShifts, a framework and benchmark suite that systematically re-splits existing trajectory datasets into in-distribution (seen) and out-of-distribution (unseen) partitions, via a shared characterization-and-splitting formulation, in which a characterization function fixes the axis of variation a benchmark probes and a splitting function fixes how the tail of that axis is withheld. The suite comprises three benchmarks targeting key topological and behavioral distribution shifts. Furthermore, to aggregate multi-dimensional performance metrics across these benchmarks, we propose a unified robustness score that evaluates models along two complementary dimensions: prediction quality (relative performance gain) and prediction stability (performance preservation under shift). We showcase ControlledShifts by benchmarking prominent transformer-based architectures, exposing critical differences in how models of varying capacities handle latent relevance and environmental structure.

轨迹预测分布偏移鲁棒性评估

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