自进化AI代理自动检测金融时间序列突变点,免人工调参。
EvoTS-Agent: A Self-Evolving LLM Agent for Financial Time Series Change Point Detection

- 用三个操作符动态优化检测流程,适应不同市场特征。
- 在4个基准数据集上超越现有方法,所有模型执行成功率100%。
- 适合量化交易、风控系统等需要自动分析的场景。
金融时间序列具有非平稳性和统计异质性,导致突变点检测困难——单一无监督算法难以在不同资产和市场环境下保持稳定表现。传统方法严重依赖专家进行模型选择、特征设计与超参数调优,限制了可扩展性与适应性。本文提出EvoTS-Agent,一种基于验证反馈的自进化大模型代理,实现金融时间序列突变点检测的自动化。该代理首先通过精心设计的探索性数据分析刻画数据特性并初始化候选检测模型;随后通过三种互补算子演化可执行实验路径: extit{Revision} 利用当前最优解进行改进, extit{Alternative Strategy} 在进展停滞时探索根本不同的建模方向, extit{Recombination} 融合高性能路径中的互补证据。验证反馈贯穿整个搜索过程,使代理能够根据每组数据的统计特性动态调整检测流程,同时保障优化可靠性。在四个基准数据集上的实验表明,EvoTS-Agent持续优于现有基于大模型的代理,且在所有评估的大模型骨架上均达到100%的执行成功率。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Financial time series exhibit non-stationary and heterogeneous statistical properties, making change-point detection challenging because no single unsupervised algorithm performs consistently across assets and market regimes. Conventional workflows consequently depend heavily on expert-driven model selection, feature design, and hyperparameter tuning, limiting their scalability and adaptability. We propose EvoTS-Agent, a validation-guided self-evolving LLM agent for autonomous financial time-series change-point detection. EvoTS-Agent first performs curated exploratory data analysis to characterize dataset properties and initialize candidate detection models. It then evolves executable experiment trajectories through three complementary operators: \textit{Revision} exploits the current best solution, \textit{Alternative Strategy} explores fundamentally different modeling directions when progress stagnates, and \textit{Recombination} synthesizes complementary evidence from high-performing trajectories. Validation feedback guides trajectory evolution throughout the search, enabling the agent to adapt its detection pipeline to the statistical characteristics of each dataset while preserving reliable optimization. Experiments across four benchmark datasets demonstrate that EvoTS-Agent consistently outperforms existing LLM-based agents while maintaining a 100\% execution success rate across all evaluated backbone LLMs.
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