arXiv:2608.18932cs.LG2026-08

跨网络因果效应迁移,解决不同社交结构下的干预效果预测问题

Transportable Causal Effect Estimation across Networks under Interference

论文配图:Transportable Causal Effect Estimation across Networks under Interference
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用扩展的选择图分离协变量偏移与网络结构变化,构建可迁移的因果公式
  • 在真实天气保险实验中验证,迁移效果与随机对照试验结果一致
  • 适合做社交网络、公共卫生等跨群体干预策略研究的研究者

在存在网络干扰的情况下,传统因果效应估计通常假设训练网络与部署网络一致。但现实中干预常在一个群体进行,而关注的是另一个不同群体,两者在网络拓扑、节点特征构成和溢出路径上均存在差异。因此,将因果效应从一个网络迁移到另一个网络本质上是数据融合问题,现有算法无法解决。本文引入扩展的选择图,将协变量偏移与结构网络偏移作为独立选择因子,并推导出部署群体中直接效应、溢出效应和总效应的迁移公式。每个公式明确指出了哪些干预机制保持不变,以及需要重新加权哪些观测分布。基于这些公式,提出TranCE(Transported Causal Effects)算法,结合干预结果模型、域密度比校正和交叉拟合推断,实现双重稳健性。在两个由真实社交网络生成的半合成基准数据集及一个完整的实地天气保险实验中进行了广泛测试,其中迁移效应通过保留的随机化估计进行验证,结果表明方法有效。研究发现有助于提升网络系统中干预策略的普适性,尤其适用于社交网络与公共卫生领域。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Estimating causal effects under network interference typically assumes that the network used for training and the network used for deployment coincide. In practice, an intervention is run on one population while the question of interest concerns a different population, and the two generally differ in topology, node-covariate composition, and spillover pathways. Transporting a causal effect across networks is therefore a data-fusion problem that no existing algorithm solves. We employ a selection diagram, extended to the network setting so that covariate shift and structural network shift enter as separate selectors, and derive from it a transport formula for the direct, spillover, and total effects in the deployment population. Each formula makes explicit which interventional mechanism is assumed invariant and which observational distribution must be reweighted. We then turn the formulas into TranCE (Transported Causal Effects), a doubly-robust algorithm combining an interventional outcome model, a domain density-ratio correction, and cross-fitted inference. Extensive experiments on two semi-synthetic benchmarks derived from real-world social networks and on a fully real weather-insurance field experiment, where the transported effects are checked against held-out randomized estimates, confirm the effectiveness of our approach. Our findings have the potential to improve intervention strategies in networked systems, particularly in social networks and public health.

因果推断网络分析迁移学习

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。