arXiv:2608.19278cs.CYcs.AI2026-08

20个中等人工智能实力国家如何治理通用AI,规则形式相似但执行力差异大。

Mapping General-Purpose AI Governance in Twenty AI Middle-Power Jurisdictions

  • 按四大责任环节映射20国政策,涵盖风险评估到事故上报
  • 仅约1/5条款具法律约束力,且多数未明确定义通用AI
  • 多数监管机构缺乏实权,重点在应用层而非模型层管控

最强大的通用人工智能(GPAI)模型主要由美国和中国开发,但其风险具有全球性。我们称之为‘人工智能中等强国’的区域性先进经济体虽无前沿开发者,却在制定自身GPAI治理规则。本文系统映射了20个司法管辖区(包括欧盟)在四个治理领域中的具体条款:系统性风险评估、评估与验证、禁止性措施及监测检测、严重事件报告。数据不仅记录正面规定,也标注缺失项。发现各国在形式上趋同,但在执行效力上分化明显:16个辖区至少覆盖三个领域,但仅有约五分之一条款具有法律约束力,且四分之三的约束性文件未定义GPAI。制度基础设施亦如此:五分之四的治理主体职责早于GPAI存在,义务沿袭原有覆盖范围,主要集中于应用层而非模型层。当这些国家触及模型层时,多侧重观测能力建设,而非对开发者施加义务;几乎所有评估机构均无权依据发现采取行动。名义上覆盖完整责任链条的有11个辖区,但仅5个在所有领域拥有超过一项条款,且除欧盟外,无一要求模型开发者承担强制性评估义务。该数据集为研究者与政策制定者提供了条款级基础,用以识别可协调之处及需从零开始协同的领域。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The most capable general-purpose AI (GPAI) models are mostly built in two jurisdictions, the United States and China, but the risks they carry land globally. Regionally advanced economies hosting no frontier developer, which we call AI middle-powers, are writing their own rules to govern GPAI. This paper investigates which GPAI-relevant provisions these AI middle-powers have enacted, mapping twenty jurisdictions including the European Union at the level of the individual provision, across four governance areas that trace the accountability chain for the model layer: systemic risk assessment, evaluation and verification, prohibitions with monitoring and detection, and serious incident reporting. Confirmed absence is recorded as data alongside positive provision. We find that jurisdictions converge on form, but diverge on force. Sixteen engage in at least three of the four governance areas, yet only about one in five provisions sit in binding law, and three-quarters of the instruments that do bind do so without defining GPAI. The institutional infrastructure shows the same shape: four in five of the mapped governance actors hold mandates that predate GPAI, and obligations attach wherever the inherited regime already reached, which is the application layer rather than the model. Where these states engage the model layer, they build capacity to observe it rather than impose duties on those who build it, and almost every evaluation body was constituted without the power to act on what it finds. Nominal coverage of the full accountability chain reaches eleven jurisdictions, but only five hold more than one provision in every area and, outside the EU, no jurisdiction imposes a binding evaluation duty on a model developer. The dataset gives researchers and policymakers a provision-level basis for identifying where regimes could align, and where coordination would have to start from scratch.

AI治理政策分析国际协调

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