arXiv:2608.19568cs.LGcs.AI2026-08

用零样本策略预判新卡牌游戏的首轮选牌,准确率超六成。

DraftFM: A FoundationModel for Day-Zero Drafting in Magic: The Gathering

  • 基于公开卡表构建无身份依赖的评分模型,新卡与旧卡同机制处理。
  • 在3个未见扩张中预测选牌,首选命中率达50.8%~60.4%,远超随机水平。
  • 可提前生成未发布套牌排名,专家评审一致性验证其可靠性。

魔卡世界新扩展的轮抽始于无任何实际选牌记录的初始阶段:完整卡表公开,但监督学习所需的轮抽日志尚未存在。本文直接研究此‘零日’场景。DraftFM是一种离散选择策略,仅对当前卡包内可用卡牌进行评分,条件为已选牌池与轮抽状态。每张卡以775维固定函数表示,包含公开卡表信息、结构化特征与固定文本嵌入,模型中不涉及卡牌或系列身份及使用统计,因此新卡与旧卡使用相同评分机制。一个160万参数的网络,在1.49亿次人类轮抽(来自29个扩展)上训练,对3个完全保留的扩展进行持留预测,首选命中率分别达到50.8%、60.4%和56.7%,而随机猜测在首轮仅为约7%。在全部32个已发布扩展上重新训练后,该架构生成了尚未发布的《霍比特人》扩展的卡牌排名,其完整加密证明于该扩展可在MTG Arena轮抽前约36小时公布。该密封排名与六位独立专家评审的一致性,大致相当于专家间彼此的一致性水平。真实结果评估将另附后续报告。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Drafting a new Magic: The Gathering expansion begins before any pick from it has been observed: the complete card list is public, but the draft logs that supervised pick models train on do not yet exist. We study this day-zero regime directly. DraftFM is a discrete-choice policy that scores exactly the cards available in the current pack, conditioned on the drafted pool and the state of the draft. Every card enters as a frozen 775-dimensional function of its public card record, structured features and a fixed text embedding, with no card identities, set identities, or usage statistics anywhere in the model, so an unseen card is scored by the same machinery as a familiar one. A 1.6-million-parameter network fitted on 149 million human picks from 29 expansions predicts held-out picks in three expansions withheld in their entirety, reaching 50.8%, 60.4%, and 56.7% top-1 agreement, where uniform chance at the opening pick is about 7%. Refitted on all 32 observed expansions, the same architecture produced a card ranking for the then-unreleased set The Hobbit, sealed with its complete cryptographic provenance and published roughly 36 hours before the set became draftable on MTG Arena. The sealed ranking agrees with six independent expert reviewers roughly as much as those reviewers agree with one another. Evaluation against realized outcomes is committed to a follow-on note, whatever it shows.

游戏AI轮抽策略零样本卡牌游戏

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