用空间图嵌入+数据增强,提升小样本下灾害易发性预测准确率。
SAGE-XGBoost: Spatially Augmented Graph Embeddings--Machine Learning Framework for Natural Hazards Susceptibility Mapping under Data Scarcity
- 构建邻域图提取局部空间特征,结合主成分分析降维融合环境变量。
- 在滑坡和野火案例中AUC达0.97和0.95,较传统模型提升超33个百分点。
- 适合数据稀缺的地理空间预测任务,尤其适用于灾害风险评估场景。
自然灾害易发性制图常受限于标注数据不足,制约传统机器学习泛化能力,并限制复杂深度学习模型的应用。本文提出SAGE(Spatially Augmented Graph Embeddings)框架,通过受控噪声数据增强与基于邻域的图嵌入相结合,提升小样本条件下的预测性能。构建K近邻图以提取局部空间统计特征,经主成分分析降维后与环境协变量及空间坐标融合。生成的特征用于训练XGBoost,构建SAGE-XGBoost模型。在滑坡与野火易发性制图中进行评估,该模型持续优于传统及空间显式机器学习模型。相较于空间XGBoost,在两个案例中均实现超过33个百分点的绝对性能提升,滑坡预测AUC达约0.97,野火预测达0.95。特征重要性分析证实图嵌入对预测有贡献,其融合提升了空间一致性并抑制了局部噪声放大。整体而言,SAGE-XGBoost为有限监督下的环境灾害评估及其他地理空间预测任务提供了高效可迁移的替代方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Natural hazard susceptibility mapping is often constrained by limited labeled data, reducing the generalizability of conventional machine learning and limiting the applicability of complex deep learning models. This study proposes SAGE (Spatially Augmented Graph Embeddings), a structurally informed feature-engineering framework that combines controlled noise-based data augmentation with neighborhood-based graph embeddings to improve prediction under data-scarce conditions. A K-nearest neighbor graph is constructed to derive local spatial statistics, which are reduced using principal component analysis and integrated with environmental covariates and spatial coordinates. The resulting features are used with XGBoost to develop the SAGE-XGBoost model. The framework was evaluated for landslide and wildfire susceptibility mapping. SAGE-XGBoost consistently outperformed conventional and spatially explicit machine learning models. Compared with Spatial XGBoost, it achieved an absolute improvement of above 33 percentage points across the two case studies. The model reached AUC values of approximately 0.97 for landslide susceptibility and 0.95 for wildfire susceptibility. Feature importance analysis confirmed the contribution of graph embeddings to prediction, while their integration improved spatial coherence and reduced local noise amplification. Overall, SAGE-XGBoost provides an efficient and transferable alternative to deep representation learning for environmental hazard assessment and other geospatial prediction tasks under limited supervision.
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