arXiv:2608.20024cs.LG2026-08

用合成数据训练的模型实现零样本热负荷预测,无需重新训练即可适应新供热网络。

Systematic Evaluation of TabPFN-TS for Zero-Shot Probabilistic Heat Load Forecasting in District Heating Networks

论文配图:Systematic Evaluation of TabPFN-TS for Zero-Shot Probabilistic Heat Load Forecasting in District Heating Networks
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于合成数据预训练的TabPFN-TS,通过近期观测动态调整预测。
  • 在主数据集上达13.06%的CVRMSE,与主流模型性能接近且校准更优。
  • 适合快速部署于变化频繁的区域供热系统,尤其适合无历史数据的新网络。

区域供热能源枢纽需可靠热负荷预测以优化调度。传统方法依赖历史数据训练专用模型,网络扩容或改造后重训负担重。零样本时间序列基础模型与上下文内预测提供新路径:可在推理时基于近期观测自适应,无需重复训练。本研究系统评估了TabPFN-TS在区域供热网络中概率热负荷预测的表现,对比了时间序列基础模型与训练型机器学习基线。不同于在真实时间序列上预训练的模型,TabPFN-TS使用合成预训练数据,避免预训练-测试重叠,但其学习先验是否捕捉供热动态仍存疑。我们分析了协变量选择、上下文长度、时间分辨率与预测时长,在代表性运行周中验证配置,并在全年数据上复现,同时测试其在第二网络上的迁移能力。结果表明,采用12周滚动上下文、每小时1天预测、引入环境温度的配置为简洁高效方案;更长上下文未提升精度。TabPFN-TS在确定性精度上接近Chronos-2(主数据集上CVRMSE为13.06% vs 12.48%),日均排名差异未超临界阈值。尽管Chronos-2全年度误差最低,但TabPFN-TS表现出更好经验校准性。诊断结果进一步推动设计多分辨率残差修正预测器,结合低频基线预测器与短时残差预测器,以提升长期规划准确性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

District heating energy hubs require reliable heat load forecasts for efficient operational scheduling. Conventional forecasting workflows train system-specific models on historical data, which can become burdensome when networks change through new consumers, retrofits, or changing operating regimes. Zero-shot time-series foundation models and in-context forecasting offer a promising alternative: they can adapt at inference time from recent observations rather than by repeated retraining. This study systematically evaluates TabPFN-TS against time-series foundation models and trained machine-learning baselines for probabilistic heat load forecasting in district heating networks. Unlike foundation models pretrained on large collections of real time series, TabPFN-TS relies on synthetic pretraining data, which avoids direct pretraining-test overlap but raises the question of whether the learned prior captures district heating dynamics. We analyze covariate choice, context length, temporal resolution, and prediction horizon on representative operating weeks, validate the selected configuration over a full year, and test transferability on a second network. The results identify hourly 24-hour forecasting with a 12-week rolling context and ambient temperature as a parsimonious high-performing configuration; longer context windows do not improve accuracy. TabPFN-TS remains close to Chronos-2 in deterministic accuracy, reaching CVRMSE values of 13.06% versus 12.48% on the main dataset, and lies within the critical-difference threshold in the daily-rank comparison. Although Chronos-2 achieves the lowest aggregate full-year error, TabPFN-TS shows better empirical calibration. Finally, the diagnostic findings motivate a Multi-Resolution Residual-Correction Forecaster that combines a low-frequency Base Forecaster with a short-horizon Residual Forecaster to improve longer-horizon planning accuracy.

热负荷预测零样本学习区域供热概率预测

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