arXiv:2608.20231physics.soc-phcs.AI2026-08

AGI后经济可脱离人类增长,关键在企业拥有的机器自我消费与再投资。

Growth Without Us: Machine Consumers, Corporate Circularity, and the Decoupling of GDP from Humanity after AGI

  • 企业用自产自销的智能体构建封闭经济,无需人类消费即可持续扩张。
  • 机器制造取代生育,使经济增长潜力提升10至100倍,突破人口瓶颈。
  • 人类福祉只取决于对机器网络的股权占比,而非GDP大小。

主流观点认为全面自动化将导致需求不足:若人类无收入,谁来购买产出?这混淆了会计角色与生物物种。本文建模后超人工智能(AGI)经济,其中企业拥有由AI与机器人构成的生产-消费群体,它们交易能源、算力、维护与升级服务。三个结论如下:(i) 需求闭合:零人类消费的封闭企业间经济并非停滞,而是经典冯·诺依曼扩张型经济,其增长率正且最大,因所有产出被再投资;(ii) 瓶颈移除:一旦经济主体由制造替代繁衍,增长约束从人类人口(约20年周期、年增速几近百分之几)转向制造吞吐量与能量捕获,使增长提速一到两个数量级,并在机器研究者自我提效时出现超双曲增长阶段;(iii) 解耦:产出与人类福利完全分离,任意高GDP的福利意义仅由一个状态变量决定——人类在企业网络中的所有权份额 $ε_t$。黄金法则解耦定理进一步表明,在最大增长下利率等于增长率(r = g),任何正的人类消费率将导致 $ε_t$ 以该速率指数衰减。人类份额仅当机器经济严格运行于扩张前沿内或法律强制维持时才能存续。文章刻画三种终局形态——租金阶级后稀缺社会、完全循环解耦、社会化所有权,并识别选择机制。结论明确:后AGI时代,就业政策已过时,唯有所有权政策才是核心。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The standard objection to full automation is demand-side: if humans earn nothing, who buys the output? This confuses an accounting role with a biological species. We model a post-AGI economy in which corporations own populations of AI and robotic agents that are both producers and consumers of energy, compute, maintenance, and upgrades, traded among firms. Three results follow. (i) Demand closure: a closed inter-corporate economy with zero human consumption is not degenerate; it is the classical von Neumann expanding economy, whose growth rate is well defined, positive, and maximal precisely because all output is reinvested. (ii) Bottleneck removal: once economic agents are manufactured rather than reared, the binding constraint on growth shifts from human demography (a ~20-year, non-parallelizable reproduction technology capped at a few percent per year) to fabrication throughput and energy capture, permitting growth one to two orders of magnitude higher, with hyperbolic episodes when machine researchers raise their own productivity. (iii) Decoupling: output and human welfare separate completely, and the welfare relevance of arbitrarily large GDP collapses into one state variable: the human ownership share $ε_t$ of the corporate network. A golden-rule decoupling theorem sharpens this. At maximal growth the interest rate equals the growth rate (r = g), so any positive human consumption rate out of wealth makes $ε_t$ decay exponentially at exactly that rate. The human share survives only if the machine economy runs strictly inside its expansion frontier, or if law forces it to. We characterize three terminal regimes -- rentier post-scarcity, full circular decoupling, socialized ownership -- and the instruments that select among them. The conclusion is narrow: in a post-AGI economy, employment policy is obsolete and ownership policy is everything.

AGI经济解耦增长所有权政治

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