用原始三元数据提升交通流量预测,避免拥堵与畅通时的模型偏差。
RiskTraf: Risk-Extrapolated Residual Learning for Multi-Variate Traffic Flow Prediction

- 基于原始流量、速度、占有率构建新基准,保留真实传感器数据。
- 提出风险外推残差模块,在不改主模型前提下优化多时段预测误差。
- 适合需要高精度交通预测的智慧交通系统开发者使用。
交通传感器通常记录流量、速度和占有率,但现有流量预测基准和模型很少能可靠利用这三项原始数据。尽管速度与占有率提供比流量更丰富的交通状态信息,但现有数据集常缺失这些变量、使用代理值或包含逻辑矛盾记录。直接对三变量输入进行经验风险最小化可能产生依赖特定交通状态的捷径,因流量、速度与占有率的关系在自由流与拥堵状态下差异显著。本文提出公开的PEMSB-3V基准套件,完整保留来自PeMS检测器的原始流量、速度与占有率数据用于流量预测。同时提出RiskTraf——一种模型无关的风险外推残差插件。对于每个训练好的时空主干网络,RiskTraf冻结选定检查点,并从历史速度与占有率中学习轻量级零起点残差头。该残差头构建有序交通风险环境,以风险外推目标优化分时流量修正,从而在不修改主干的前提下缓解特定状态下的捷径相关性。大量实验表明,RiskTraf可持续提升多种预测主干性能,优于去偏与分布迁移适配方法。代码与数据集已开源。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Traffic sensors commonly record flow, speed, and occupancy, but standard traffic flow forecasting benchmarks and models rarely exploit all three raw measurements reliably. Although speed and occupancy provide sensor-native traffic-state information beyond flow alone, existing releases often omit these variables, replace them with proxies, or contain logically inconsistent records. Moreover, direct empirical risk minimization over three-variable inputs may exploit regime-dependent shortcuts, as the relationships among flow, speed, and occupancy vary substantially between free-flow and congested states. We introduce \textbf{PEMSB-3V}, a public benchmark suite that preserves raw flow, speed, and occupancy measurements from PeMS detectors for flow prediction. We also propose \textbf{RiskTraf}, a model-agnostic risk-extrapolated residual plug-in. For each trained spatio-temporal backbone, RiskTraf freezes the selected checkpoint and learns a lightweight zero-start residual head from historical speed and occupancy. The residual head constructs ordered traffic-risk environments and optimizes horizon-wise flow corrections with a risk extrapolation objective, thereby mitigating regime-specific shortcut correlations without modifying the backbone. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RiskTraf consistently improves diverse forecasting backbones and outperforms debiasing and distribution-shift adaptation methods. Our code and benchmark are available at https://github.com/Guangyu4/RiskTraf.
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