用大模型生成可解释概念,让时间序列预测结果更透明。
ConceptTS: LLM-Guided Concept Bottlenecks for Interpretable Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting

- 用大模型自动提取人类可读的概念并生成标注规则
- 三个概念瓶颈分别捕捉历史、近期和全程的预测依据
- 既保持高精度又支持人为干预和结果解释
当前先进的多变量时间序列预测模型虽能捕捉复杂的时序与变量间依赖关系,但其内部表示不透明,难以解释预测原因。这限制了其在需理解预测依据场景中的应用。我们提出 ConceptTS,一个以命名、可读概念为核心的可解释预测框架。该框架利用大语言模型生成任务相关概念及可执行标注规则,将语言模型的领域知识转化为直接监督信号,无需耗时的人工概念标注。提出的概念被组织为三个互补瓶颈:描述历史背景、局部预测区间和完整预测期。共享解码器结合各瓶颈的激活预测值生成最终结果,使决策过程清晰可见,并支持概念层面的直接干预。在北京市多站点空气质量数据集上的实验表明,ConceptTS 在精度上媲美强黑箱基线的同时,产生语义合理的概念激活。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
State-of-the-art multivariate time-series forecasters can model complex temporal and cross-variable dependencies, yet their opaque representations provide limited insight into why a particular forecast is produced. This lack of transparency restricts their use in settings where practitioners must understand and assess the factors underlying a prediction. We introduce ConceptTS, an interpretable forecasting framework that organizes its predictions around named, human-readable concepts. ConceptTS uses a large language model to propose task-relevant concepts and generate executable labeling rules, translating the language model's domain knowledge into direct supervision without costly manual concept annotation. The proposed concepts are organized into three complementary bottlenecks that describe the historical context, local forecast intervals, and the full forecast horizon. A shared decoder combines representations derived from their predicted activations to construct the forecast, making the model's decision process explicit and supporting direct concept-level interventions. Experiments on the Beijing Multi-Site Air Quality dataset show that ConceptTS achieves accuracy competitive with strong black-box baselines while producing semantically meaningful concept activations.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。