arXiv:2608.21385cs.CLcs.AI2026-08

对比分析了Telegram上8个亲以和8个亲巴频道的舆论,发现双方用词相似但情绪相反。

A Social Media Analysis of Discourse on the Israel--Palestine Conflict on Telegram

论文配图:A Social Media Analysis of Discourse on the Israel--Palestine Conflict on Telegram
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 结合情感、立场与话语框架三类方法,系统分析16个频道8.7万条消息
  • 亲巴频道情绪更负面,亲以频道更中性客观,反映不同身份立场差异
  • 自研BERTweet模型准确率达72.1%,优于其他基线方法8-11个百分点

社交媒体已成为武装冲突角力的重要场域,但对Telegram上亲以色列与亲巴勒斯坦社群的系统性对比研究仍不足。本研究对2021年5月至2026年6月间16个频道(各8个)共87,617条消息进行多方法计算分析,涵盖情感分析、三种不同范式的立场识别方法(关键词匹配、零样本DeBERTa、微调BERTweet),以及话语框架分析,并基于736条人工标注数据评估。微调模型表现最佳(72.1%准确率,0.721宏F1,五折交叉验证),比无标签基线高出8至11个百分点;基线在60-65%区间停滞,表明未适配领域语言的模型存在性能天花板。关键发现:当情感、立场与话语框架综合解读时,双方使用相同的死亡与受害者相关词汇,但情绪基调截然相反——亲以频道多为中立报道式,亲巴频道则显著更消极,体现行动方与受难方的不同话语立场。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Social media has become a central arena in which armed conflicts are contested, yet the pro-Israel and pro-Palestine communities on Telegram, whose broadcast architecture yields an unusually direct record of deliberate political communication, have not been systematically compared at scale. This study presents a multi-method computational analysis of 87,617 messages from sixteen Telegram channels, eight pro-Israel and eight pro-Palestine, spanning May 2021 to June 2026 and covering multiple conflict escalations. It combines sentiment analysis, three stance detection methods drawn from distinct paradigms (keyword matching, zero-shot DeBERTa via natural language inference, and a fine-tuned BERTweet model), and a framing analysis, all evaluated against 736 manually annotated messages. The fine-tuned model performed best (72.1% accuracy, 0.721 macro F1 under 5-fold cross-validation), outperforming both label-free baselines by 8 to 11 points; the baselines stalled in the low-to-mid 60s, indicating a hard ceiling for stance detection not adapted to in-domain language. The central finding emerges only when sentiment, stance, and framing are read together: the two communities deploy the same death- and victim-related vocabulary in opposite emotional registers, pro-Israel channels predominantly neutral and report-style, pro-Palestine channels markedly more negative, consistent with writing from the distinct discourse positions of acting party and affected party.

社交媒体分析舆论立场话语框架

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