arXiv:2608.21497eess.IVcs.CV2026-08

首个前列腺癌预后多模态基准,验证多模态模型在专家标注缺失时更鲁棒。

CHIMERA Challenge: Biochemical Recurrence Prediction in Prostate Cancer Patients using multimodal datasets

论文配图:CHIMERA Challenge: Biochemical Recurrence Prediction in Prostate Cancer Patients using multimodal datasets
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建包含影像、病理和临床数据的多模态公开基准,覆盖267例患者。
  • 仅用临床变量的模型性能最佳(测试C-index 0.7402),但对专家标注敏感。
  • 多模态模型在无专家变量时仍保持稳定,适合真实医疗场景应用。

生化复发(BCR)是前列腺癌根治术后常用的替代终点,通常基于临床和病理变量评估。目前尚无标准化的泌尿系统癌症多模态预后建模基准,部分原因是异构多模态数据的整理困难。我们开发了CHIMERA挑战赛,一个整合术前mpMRI、术后组织病理学、患者特征及医生衍生变量的多模态基准,涵盖267名来自两个机构的患者。数据集包括801个MRI序列、每例13个临床变量和942张全切片图像(WSI)。建立了训练集(n=95)、验证集(n=23)和测试集(n=149),并托管于大型挑战平台。各分组间基线临床病理特征无显著差异。模型通过C-index评估预测至BCR的时间。赛后分析显示,当医生变量被剔除或随机化时,单模态临床模型性能急剧下降至接近随机水平(C≈0.50),而多模态模型仅出现最大0.04的性能下降,表明其能从影像数据中恢复预后信号。CHIMERA是首个公开的前列腺癌预后多模态标准化基准。尽管仅使用患者特征和医生变量的模型在排行榜上表现最优,但多模态模型在缺乏完整专家标注的真实临床情境中展现出更强鲁棒性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Biochemical recurrence (BCR), defined as any detectable prostate-specific antigen level after prostatectomy with confirmatory elevation, is widely used as a surrogate endpoint and typically assessed using clinical and pathological variables. Currently, no standardized benchmark exists for multimodal prognostic modeling in urological cancers, partly because curating heterogeneous multimodal data remains challenging. We developed the CHIMERA Challenge, a multimodal benchmark integrating preoperative mpMRI, post-prostatectomy histopathology, patient characteristics, and clinician-derived variables from 267 patients across two institutions. The dataset comprises 801 MRI sequences, 13 clinical variables per case, and 942 WSIs. Training (n=95), validation (n=23), and test (n=149) splits were established and hosted on the Grand Challenge platform. Baseline clinical and pathological characteristics did not differ significantly across splits. Models were evaluated on predicting time to BCR using the C-index. Post-challenge analyses tested how each model type performed when clinician-derived variables were withheld or randomized. Unimodal clinical models achieved the highest test C-index of 0.7402 but proved sensitive to the integrity of these variables, with performance collapsing toward chance (C approximately 0.50) when they were randomized. Multimodal models retained near-baseline performance when these variables were withheld (delta C at most 0.04), indicating their ability to recover prognostic signal directly from imaging data. CHIMERA is the first public, standardized multimodal benchmark for prostate cancer prognosis. Although models using only patient characteristics and clinician-derived variables yielded the highest leaderboard performance, multimodal models demonstrated greater robustness in clinically realistic scenarios where complete expert annotation is not guaranteed.

前列腺癌多模态预后预测医学影像

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