用非降雨数据预训练模型,提升季风降水预测精度。
Tracing the Unlabeled Storm: Cross-Variable Transfer in a Lagrangian Atmospheric JEPA Framework

- 用连续大气代理变量(如辐射通量)在拉格朗日框架下预训练模型。
- 转移后模型在暴雨阈值和细尺度上表现优于51成员欧洲中期预报中心集合。
- 适用于需要高精度降水预测的气象研究与业务预报场景。
深层大气对流主导南亚季风变率,但直接从零膨胀、重尾的降水数据学习潜在世界模型效果不佳。连续大气代理变量(如向外长波辐射,OLR)能更一致地表达对流组织。本文提出跨变量代理学习:M-JEPA是一种多尺度季风联合嵌入预测架构,在追踪移动对流系统的拉格朗日区域上,基于五个连续代理场进行无降雨监督预训练。冻结的表征通过共享解码器主干(含并行概率与确定性分支)迁移到日尺度降水预报。由于预训练全程未观测降雨,下游性能直接反映隐式滚动中捕获的预测信息。对比实验(相同架构仅用降雨训练、随机初始化骨架)表明迁移优势源于代理预训练:直接降雨训练的CRPS误差高出36%(7.52 vs. 5.54 mm/day)。相比51成员欧洲中期预报中心集合,该模型在单个消费级GPU上以1540万参数实现统计显著的CRPS优势(6.81 vs. 6.89 mm/day),Brier技能评分更高(+0.05 vs. -0.04),尤其在强降水阈值与精细空间尺度上;集合仍胜于邻域技能与点对点指标。结果提供了一种基于季节内动力学的竞争力季风降水预报,并建立评估迁移大气表征的诊断框架。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Deep atmospheric convection governs South Asian monsoon variability, yet attempting to learn its latent world model directly from zero-inflated, heavy-tailed precipitation yields suboptimal predictive representations. Continuous atmospheric proxies, such as outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), express this convective organization far more coherently. We address this mismatch with \emph{cross-variable proxy learning}: M-JEPA, a multiscale Monsoon Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture, is pretrained on five continuous proxy fields over Lagrangian patches tracking moving convective systems---without rainfall supervision at any point. The resulting frozen representation is transferred to daily precipitation forecasts through a shared decoder trunk featuring parallel probabilistic and deterministic branches. Because rainfall is strictly unobserved during pretraining, downstream skill directly measures the predictive information captured in the latent rollout. A frozen-backbone probing framework with two controls (an identical architecture trained on rainfall alone, and a randomly initialized backbone) attributes the transfer specifically to proxy pretraining: direct rainfall training exhibits $36\%$ higher CRPS error ($7.52$ vs.\ $5.54$\,mm/day). Against the 51-member operational ECMWF ensemble, the transferred model attains a statistically resolved CRPS advantage ($6.81$ vs.\ $6.89$\,mm/day) and higher Brier skill ($+0.05$ vs.\ $-0.04$) using $15.4$M parameters on a single consumer GPU, concentrated at heavy-rain thresholds and fine spatial scales, while the ensemble retains an advantage in neighborhood skill and deterministic references on point metrics. The result provides a competitive monsoon precipitation forecast grounded in intraseasonal dynamics and a diagnostic framework for evaluating transferred atmospheric representations.
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