arXiv:2608.22483cs.CL2026-08

让大模型为每个说法打分,更准判断真假。

Claim-Level Confidence Calibration for Reliable Decision Making with Large Language Models

  • 把回答拆成可验证的独立说法,逐个评分
  • 在多个数据集上降低错误率,提升可信度
  • 适合需要精准决策的高风险场景使用

大型语言模型在高风险领域日益用于辅助决策,但常产生幻觉,且自信程度与事实正确性不匹配。现有响应级置信度过于粗略:一次生成可能混杂正确与错误陈述,单一数值无法指导用户对具体信息进行采纳、拒绝或核查。本文研究基于声明级别的置信度校准,作为决策相关不确定性信号:将每个回应分解为原子化、可验证的声明,并利用采样一致性与自验证等推理时信号,对每条声明进行校准。该框架在无需模型输出概率(无logits)、无需微调的闭盒设置下运行,直接在声明层级实施后处理校准,支持对低置信度声明进行证据检索或人工审核等选择性干预。我们在TriviaQA和TruthfulQA上评估了七个基线方法在六种近期模型(Llama-3.1、Mistral、Qwen2.5、DeepSeek-R1、GPT-4、GPT-4o)上的表现,结果表明,结合声明级分解与后处理校准能有效降低事实类问题的期望校准误差,同时在对抗性虚假前提问题中暴露模型缺陷,这类场景正是决策者最需可靠不确定估计的时刻。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly support decision-making in high-stakes domains, but they often hallucinate and express confidence that is misaligned with factual correctness. Response-level confidence is a coarse signal: a single generation can mix correct and incorrect statements, so a single number is not actionable for users that must accept, reject, or verify individual pieces of information. We study claim-level confidence calibration as a decision-relevant uncertainty signal: each response is decomposed into atomic, verifiable claims, and each claim is assigned a calibrated confidence using inference-time signals from consistency across samples and self-verification. Our framework operates in closed-box settings (no logits, no fine-tuning) and applies post-hoc calibration directly at the claim level, enabling selective intervention such as evidence retrieval or human review for low-confidence claims. Across TriviaQA and TruthfulQA we evaluate seven baselines on six recent models (Llama-3.1, Mistral, Qwen2.5, DeepSeek-R1, GPT-4, GPT-4o), and show that claim-level decomposition combined with post-hoc calibration reduces expected calibration error on factual questions while exposing failure modes on adversarial false-premise questions where decision-makers most need reliable uncertainty estimates.

大模型置信度校准决策支持可靠性

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