用统计特征提前预测短脉冲托卡马克失稳,可解释且实时性强。
Interpretable statistical feature engineering for early disruption prediction in the short pulse ADITYA tokamak

- 从等离子体早期数据提取均值、方差等统计特征,结合决策树筛选关键信号。
- 在0-35毫秒窗口实现最高0.87的ROC-AUC,特征降维后性能仍稳定。
- 适合需要可解释性与低延迟的短脉冲托卡马克实时控制场景。
可靠的早期失稳预测对托卡马克安全运行与实时控制至关重要。然而,现有基于机器学习的预测框架多针对中长脉冲装置,对短脉冲托卡马克关注较少,因其可用预警时间本就受限。本文针对ADITYA托卡马克,利用欧姆变压器电源负极化前的初始等离子体演化信息,构建可解释的机器学习框架进行特征工程与早期失稳预测。从常规等离子体诊断中提取均值、方差、偏度、峰度及小波能量熵等统计描述符,覆盖不同运行时间窗。采用基于决策树的特征选择方法识别物理意义明确的失稳前兆并降低特征维度。使用筛选后的特征训练随机森林分类器。该框架在不同分析窗口下表现稳定,0-35毫秒和0-40毫秒窗口最大ROC-AUC达0.87。使用精简特征集仍获得相当或更优性能,证明所选统计描述符保留了失稳预测所需的关键信息。该方法为短脉冲托卡马克提供了可解释且计算高效的真实时失稳预测框架,表明精心设计的统计特征可有效替代原始时序输入,为类似ADITYA和ADITYA-U的短脉冲装置实现真实时等离子体控制提供可行路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Reliable early disruption prediction is critical for the safe operation and real-time control of tokamaks. However, machine learning based prediction frameworks have predominantly targeted medium and long pulse devices, with comparatively limited attention given to short pulse tokamaks where available warning time is inherently constrained. In this work, an interpretable machine learning framework is developed for feature engineering and early prediction of disruptions in the ADITYA using the initial plasma evolution information, prior to the activation of the negative converter of the ohmic transformer power supply. Statistical descriptors comprising the mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis and wavelet energy entropy are extracted from routinely available plasma diagnostics over different operation time windows. Decision tree based feature selection is employed to identify physically meaningful disruption precursors and to reduce feature dimensionality. These selected features are used to train a random forest classifier. The proposed framework achieves stable predictive performance across different analysis windows, with a maximum ROC-AUC of 0.87 for 0-35 ms and 0-40 ms windows. Comparable and in some cases improved, performance is obtained using the reduced feature set, demonstrating that the selected statistical descriptors retain the essential information required for disruption prediction. The proposed methodology provides an interpretable and computationally efficient framework for real time disruption prediction in short pulse tokamaks and establishes that carefully engineered statistical descriptors can effectively replace raw time series inputs for early disruption prediction, thereby offering a practical pathway toward real time plasma control in short pulse tokamaks similar to ADITYA and ADITYA-U.
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