用人类与大模型共构调查面板,提升数据质量与效率
Hybrid Panels: Toward Human-AI Collaboration in Survey Research

- 混合面板融合真人与大模型,动态优化调查设计
- 首轮试点揭示人机协作中的数据偏差与流程挑战
- 适合社会学、政策研究者探索低成本高时效调研新范式
大规模人口调查对社会与科学洞察至关重要,但面临回应率下降、成本上升、数据延迟及非响应偏差等挑战。人工智能(AI)为构建新型调查基础设施提供了可能,旨在不降低数据质量的前提下克服上述问题。本文提出一种名为‘混合面板’的纵向AI赋能调查框架,其核心是将真实参与者与大语言模型(LLMs)作为双重基础元素,通过迭代调整模型与目标人群的匹配度,并利用模型误差指导下一波调查的设计(如招募策略、题项分配)。本研究提出混合面板的概念定义与整体框架,涵盖从数据收集到验证的全流程,并报告首个试点研究结果,揭示了该模式在实际应用中面临的开放性挑战。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Large-scale population surveys are essential for generating robust social and scientific insights, yet they face significant challenges, including declining response rates, increasing data collection costs, long delays between data collection and data provision, and the risk of nonresponse bias. Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have opened up new opportunities for AI-supported survey infrastructures where the goal is to overcome these challenges without limiting the data quality. A promising AI-enabled survey infrastructure for which we build a first pilot is a hybrid panel. A hybrid panel is a longitudinal AI-enabled survey which allows to iteratively improve the alignment between large language models (LLMs) and the population they aim to simulate and use the errors to inform the design and implementation of the next survey wave (e.g., inform the participant recruitment, assignment of questions to participants). It incorporates both human participants and LLMs as fundamental elements of its design. In this research note, we introduce the concept of a hybrid panel by providing a definition and outlining an overarching framework, spanning data collection to data validation. We detail results from a first pilot study to illustrate (open) challenges that we identify for hybrid panels.
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