优化大模型生成的长尾任务调度，提升整体效率

Large-scale rollouts have become a core component of modern LLM systems, spanning reinforcement learning (RL) post-training, on-policy distillation (OPD), and sampling-heavy evaluation pipelines. Unlike online serving, which is typically optimized for request-level latency and throughput, a small number of long-tail generations can dominate the end-to-end makespan of an entire rollout step. In practice, rollout requests are often routed uniformly across replicas, which can place extremely long generations inside high-concurrency decoding batches. To address this, we present TailSieve, a partial-rollout-guided framework that jointly controls tail routing and replica allocation for LLM rollouts. In an idealized setting with known completion lengths, we show that makespan-optimal routing in the long-tail regime combines tail isolation with load balancing, and that a simple top-k policy closely approximates this offline optimum. Leveraging the observation that long-tail prompts tend to remain long-tailed across policy updates, TailSieve uses partial rollouts as a training-free signal for identifying candidate tail groups. A hierarchical controller then jointly adapts the number of isolated groups and the replica split between the tail and bulk pools using collected response-work history and a measured concurrency-throughput model. TailSieve achieves up to 1.67x routing-only speedup over uniform group routing. The resulting low-concurrency tail pool further enables route-specialized speculative decoding with MTP or DFlash, achieving up to 2.59x speedup over uniform routing. Selected prompts are regenerated under the current policy, preserving on-policy generation and avoiding additional routing-induced length bias in steady state.