arXiv:2608.22809cs.LG2026-08中稿 · publication at 10t…

SAGE用图结构+遗传算法选出16个关键因素,精准预测产后抑郁风险。

SAGE: Stability-Aware Graph-Based Ensemble Feature Selection for Explainable Postpartum Depression Risk Prediction

论文配图:SAGE: Stability-Aware Graph-Based Ensemble Feature Selection for Explainable Postpartum Depression Risk Prediction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于信息论与图模型融合特征选择,提升稳定性与非冗余性
  • 仅用16个特征即达87.96%准确率,优于主流方法
  • 支持个体化解释,适合资源有限地区的临床应用

产后抑郁(PPD)对母婴健康构成重大负担,尤其在低收入和中等收入国家,患病率超过19%。尽管机器学习在PPD预测上取得进展,但现有方法存在全局解释不透明、特征选择不稳定、类别不平衡下泛化能力差等问题。本文提出SAGE——一种稳定性感知的图基集成特征选择系统,结合局部可解释AI与遗传优化人工神经网络(GA-ANN)。基于766名产妇的主队列数据,SAGE融合信息论相关性、基于PCA的结构及图交互关系,并引入自助采样稳定性加权,识别出稳健且非冗余的预测因子。经遗传算法优化并结合GAN过采样增强的GA-ANN模型,在仅使用16个特征的情况下,达到87.96%准确率、86.32% F1分数和0.88 AUC,显著优于基线及其他特征选择方法。心理与社会经济因素(如EPDS评分、PHQ-9评分、育儿感受、受虐史)为主要预测因子,而人口学因素影响较小。基于LIME的解释可提供实例级特征洞察,支持个性化风险评估。研究结果表明,SAGE是一种可扩展、可解释且适用于医疗资源匮乏环境的早期识别工具。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Postpartum depression (PPD) poses a major burden on maternal and child health, especially in low- and middle-income countries where prevalence exceeds 19%. Despite advancements in machine learning for PPD prediction, current approaches are limited by opaque global explanations that lack clinical usefulness at the patient level, unstable feature selection, and poor generalization under class imbalance. We propose SAGE, a Stability-Aware Graph-Based Ensemble feature selection system that incorporates both local explainable AI and a genetically optimized artificial neural network (GA-ANN). Using a primary cohort of 766 postpartum women, SAGE combines information-theoretic relevance, PCA-based structure, and graph-based interactions with bootstrap stability weighting to identify robust and non-redundant predictors. The GA-ANN architecture, optimized using a genetic algorithm and enhanced with GAN based oversampling, achieved strong performance with 87.96% accuracy, 86.32% F1 score, and 0.88 AUC using only 16 features, outperforming baseline and other feature selection methods. Psychological and socioeconomic factors such as EPDS score, PHQ-9 score, feelings about motherhood, and abuse history are the main predictors, while demographic factors have less influence. The LIME-based explanations allow instance-based insight into selected features from the graph, enabling personalized risk assessment. The findings make SAGE a scalable, interpretable, and clinical tool for early identification of PPD in health-care limited resources.

产后抑郁特征选择可解释AI图神经网络

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