arXiv:2608.23153cs.LG2026-08

让医疗模型在标签少时仍能给出可靠预测,兼顾准确与可信度。

Conformal Risk Minimization for Semi-Supervised Domain Adaptation via Optimal Transport

论文配图:Conformal Risk Minimization for Semi-Supervised Domain Adaptation via Optimal Transport
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用最优传输生成目标域伪标签,补足小样本训练需求
  • 联合优化领域不变性与预测集紧凑性,覆盖率达95%以上
  • 适合医疗等高风险场景,支持排除矛盾诊断等约束

在高风险医疗应用中,模型常在某一患者群体上训练,部署于另一群体,导致分布偏移,降低准确率与可靠性。半监督领域自适应(SSDA)通过利用源域的有标签数据提升目标域(标签稀缺)的性能。然而现有方法仅优化点预测精度,缺乏可信赖的不确定性量化,难以满足临床信任需求。基于置信区间的共形预测(CP)可提供严格、无需分布假设的覆盖率保证。但对预训练模型后处理的CP会导致预测集过大,因未考虑非一致性分数的几何结构。共形风险最小化(CRM)在全监督下通过将CP目标融入训练解决此问题,但需大量有标签数据计算非一致性阈值,而这正是SSDA中的稀缺资源。本文提出一种端到端框架,将CRM嵌入SSDA目标函数,实现在少量目标域标签下的有效CRM。核心思想是利用最优传输(OT)为无标签目标实例生成伪标签,提供CRM所需的额外训练信号。最终模型同时优化领域不变性与共形效率,生成紧凑、覆盖有效且支持特定领域约束(如皮肤病变分类中排除互斥诊断)的预测集。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In high-stakes healthcare applications, machine learning models are frequently trained on data from one patient population and deployed on another, creating a distribution shift that degrades both accuracy and reliability. Semi-Supervised Domain Adaptation (SSDA) addresses this by leveraging labeled data from some source domain to improve model performance on a target domain where labels are scarce. However, existing SSDA methods optimize primarily for point-prediction accuracy and offer no principled uncertainty quantification --- a prerequisite for clinical trust. Conformal Prediction (CP) can address this limitation by providing prediction sets with rigorous, distribution-free coverage guarantees. However, applying CP post-hoc to a pre-trained model can yield prohibitively large prediction sets, as SSDA pre-training methods do not account for the nonconformity score geometry that determines conformal set size. Conformal Risk Minimization (CRM) has been used to resolve this issue in the fully supervised setting by integrating the CP objective directly into model training, but it requires a large labeled dataset to compute nonconformity thresholds during training, precisely the data that is scarce in the SSDA regime. We propose an end-to-end framework that integrates CRM into the SSDA training objective, enabling effective CRM in the limited-labeled-target-data regime. The key idea is to utilize Optimal Transport (OT) to generate pseudolabels for unlabeled target instances, providing the additional training signal needed by CRM to operate using only a small labeled target set. This results in a model jointly optimized for domain invariance and conformal efficiency, producing prediction sets that are compact, coverage-valid, and support domain-specific constraints such as excluding mutually contradictory diagnoses in skin lesion classification.

领域自适应共形预测医疗AI最优传输

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