arXiv:2608.23728cs.CV2026-08

通过位置速度耦合提升轨道预测精度,显著优于现有方法。

Velocity-coupled Representation Refinement for Satellite Orbit Prediction

论文配图:Velocity-coupled Representation Refinement for Satellite Orbit Prediction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 引入位置与速度的交叉交互机制,增强状态表征
  • 在星链数据上超越大模型,在六类未见星座上实现零样本预测
  • 适合航天轨道建模与时空序列预测研究者

卫星轨道预测旨在从历史观测中预报未来轨迹,对碰撞预警和空间安全操作至关重要。随着时间序列预测的发展,基于学习的方法成为有前景的解决方案。在轨道动力学中,卫星状态通常由位置和速度描述,其中位置刻画轨迹几何,速度反映瞬时方向与变化率。然而,现有方法多关注位置序列的时间依赖性,较少挖掘位置与速度之间的内在耦合关系,而该关系对建模卫星运动至关重要。为此,我们提出OrbitNet,一种面向精确轨道预测的速度感知表征学习方法。该方法将传统的位置序列预测升级为位置-速度耦合表征学习范式,通过卫星状态变量间的关联关系进行建模。具体地,设计了速度耦合表征精炼策略,利用位置与速度间的跨变量交互增强位置表示;进一步提出轨道段建模,将历史轨迹划分为时间片段,并进行片段级时间学习,以捕捉局部运动变化与长程演化模式。大量实验表明,OrbitNet在星链数据上的域内评估中超越大型时间序列基础模型及代表性通用预测方法,并在六个未见卫星星座上实现零样本评估性能领先。我们期望本工作能推动卫星感知表征学习在轨迹时间序列预测中的进一步探索。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Satellite orbit prediction, which aims to forecast future orbital trajectories from historical observations, is important for collision warning and safe space operations. With advances in time-series forecasting, learning-based methods have emerged as a promising solution for satellite prediction. In orbital dynamics, a satellite state is typically described by position and velocity, where position characterizes trajectory geometry and velocity reflects its instantaneous direction and rate of change. However, most existing methods mainly focus on temporal dependencies within position sequences while rarely exploiting the intrinsic coupling between position and velocity, which is essential for modeling satellite motion. To this end, we propose OrbitNet, a velocity-aware representation learning method for accurate satellite orbit prediction. It lifts conventional position-sequence forecasting to a position-velocity coupled representation learning paradigm by exploiting relationships among satellite state variables. Specifically, we develop a velocity-coupled representation refinement strategy to enhance positional representations through cross-variable interactions between position and velocity. We further introduce orbital segment modeling, which partitions historical trajectories into temporal segments and performs segment-level temporal learning to capture local motion variations and long-range evolution patterns. Extensive experiments show that OrbitNet outperforms large time-series foundation models and representative general forecasting methods under both in-domain evaluation on Starlink and zero-shot evaluation across six unseen satellite constellations. We expect this work to encourage further exploration of satellite-aware representation learning for trajectory time-series forecasting.

轨道预测时间序列表征学习卫星

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