arXiv:2608.24441cs.AI2026-08

针对电动车充电负荷的动态变化,提出双时尺度行为建模方法。

A Behavior-Guided Online Probabilistic Forecasting Method for Electric vehicle Charging Loads

论文配图:A Behavior-Guided Online Probabilistic Forecasting Method for Electric vehicle Charging Loads
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建双时尺度行为表征,区分长期模式与近期变化
  • 1小时前瞻预测误差降低15.3%,4小时达16.8%提升
  • 适合电网调度与充电站运营者做实时负荷预测

电动车充电负荷具有显著的行为异质性与时间变异性,在动态运行条件下进行在线概率预测面临挑战。不同充电站存在持久的充电模式差异,且近期行为变化会持续改变负荷分布。本文提出一种行为引导的在线概率预测框架,显式刻画站级长期特征与近期行为变化。通过双时尺度行为表示,区分长期充电特性与近期状态,并量化其偏离程度。行为变化被语义编码以指导漂移感知的预测自适应,同时采用延迟反馈机制确保不同预测时长下的时序一致性更新。在十个异构真实充电站上的实验表明,该方法在预测精度与概率可靠性上均优于传统模型及概念漂移感知的在线基线。1小时前瞻预测中,均方误差(MSE)与钉子损失(Pinball loss)分别降低15.3%和17.8%;4小时前瞻则分别提升16.8%和22.6%,证明在演化行为与长时预测下仍具稳定优势。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Electric vehicle (EV) charging loads exhibit strong behavioral heterogeneity and temporal variability, posing significant challenges for online probabilistic forecasting under evolving operating conditions. In particular, persistent charging patterns may differ substantially across stations, while recent behavioral changes can continuously alter the underlying load distributions. This paper proposes a behavior-guided online probabilistic forecasting framework that explicitly characterizes persistent station-specific patterns and recent behavioral changes. A dual-timescale behavior representation is constructed to distinguish long-term charging characteristics from recent behavioral states and quantify their deviations. These behavioral changes are further semantically encoded to guide drift-aware forecasting adaptation, while a delayed-feedback mechanism ensures temporally consistent online updates when observations become available across different forecasting horizons. Experiments on ten heterogeneous real-world charging stations demonstrate that the proposed method consistently outperforms conventional forecasting models and concept-drift-aware online baselines in forecasting accuracy and probabilistic reliability. For 1-h-ahead forecasting, the proposed method reduces MSE and Pinball loss by 15.3\% and 17.8\%, respectively, over the corresponding best baselines. For 4-h-ahead forecasting, the improvements further reach 16.8\% and 22.6\%, respectively, demonstrating consistent performance gains under evolving charging behaviors and extended forecasting horizons.

充电负荷在线预测概率预报行为建模

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