arXiv:2608.24518cs.LGcs.CV2026-08

提出联合建模高维输出不确定性的新方法,提升模型可靠性。

It depends: Incorporating correlations for joint aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties of high-dimensional output spaces

  • 用低秩加对角结构近似联合不确定性分布
  • 在图像修复、色彩化等任务中实现更优的不确定性量化
  • 适合需要可靠置信度评估的医疗影像等高维预测场景

不确定性量化(UQ)在提升深度学习模型预测可靠性方面至关重要,尤其在高维输出空间中。本文针对不确定性中的两类——偶然性与认知性,聚焦其在高维回归任务中的联合建模。例如,在医学图像分割或恢复中,偶然性不确定性反映数据固有噪声,认知性不确定性则衡量模型对陌生情况的置信度。同时建模二者可更真实反映不可避变异与知识盲区,而仅建模其一则削弱透明性与鲁棒性。本文提出一种新方法,通过低秩加对角协方差结构近似联合不确定性,捕捉关键输出相关性,同时避免全协方差矩阵带来的计算开销。不同于以往工作,该方法显式将两类不确定性融合为统一的二阶分布,支持采样与对数似然评估等下游分析。我们还引入稳定训练与推理策略,在图像修复、着色、光流和深度估计任务中均实现了更优的不确定性量化性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) plays a vital role in enhancing the reliability of deep learning model predictions, especially in scenarios with high-dimensional output spaces. This paper addresses the dual nature of uncertainty -- aleatoric and epistemic -- focusing on their joint integration in high-dimensional regression tasks. For example, in applications like medical image segmentation or restoration, aleatoric uncertainty captures inherent data noise, while epistemic uncertainty quantifies the model's confidence in unfamiliar conditions. Modeling both jointly enables more reliable predictions by reflecting both unavoidable variability and knowledge gaps, whereas modeling only one limits transparency and robustness. We propose a novel approach that approximates the resulting joint uncertainty using a low-rank plus diagonal covariance structure, capturing essential output correlations while avoiding the computational burdens of full covariance matrices. Unlike prior work, our method explicitly combines aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties into a unified second-order distribution that supports robust downstream analyses like sampling and log-likelihood evaluation. We further introduce stabilization strategies for efficient training and inference, achieving superior UQ in the tasks of image inpainting, colorization, optical flow, and depth estimation.

不确定性量化高维输出联合建模图像恢复

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