用贝叶斯模型统一评估RAG系统，揭示隐藏的错误传播机制

Evaluating Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems requires assessing not only end-to-end correctness but also how individual components interact and how errors propagate through the pipeline. We introduce a Bayesian evaluation framework that jointly models retrieval success, abstention behavior, and answer correctness, factorized according to the pipeline's information flow. The model distinguishes task success. Whether the user received a correct answer (from generator success) and whether the generator behaved appropriately given the retrieval outcome. We apply the framework to 27 RAG configurations across three datasets, three retrievers, and three generators, and show that the conditional decomposition reveals substantial behavioral differences between systems that appear equivalent under marginal metrics. We further analyze the annotation allocation problem, demonstrating that retrieval-success annotations are more informative than task-success annotations for estimating policy adherence, and provide an information-theoretic explanation for this asymmetry. Finally, we extend the model to incorporate LLM-as-a-judge annotations as calibrated noisy observations, enabling practitioners to combine limited human judgments with cheaper automated assessments within a unified probabilistic model.