提出能量形式共中心几何,实现可验证的径向预测区域构建。
Common-Center Geometry and Certified Radial Reconstruction for Energy-Form Full Conformal Regions

- 基于能量形式得分,构造共享最小值点的星形区域
- 对一维情形证明非空闭区间结构,高维下获径向边界认证
- 适合低维多变量输出的严格置信区域计算,适用于稳健性验证
本文研究由经验能量形式成对得分生成的完整共形预测(FullCP)区域几何。仅候选得分凸性不足以保证区域连通性,即使损失函数在候选变量上凸。对于能量形式得分,每个留一训练比较恰好对应一个成对差异子水平条件。在对称性、常数对角线、对角线下界及弗雷歇型目标可达条件下,所有比较区域共享一个最小值点;若这些区域凸,则任意非平凡精确共形区域均关于该点呈星形。对于幂距离ρ_β(x,y)=‖x−y‖^β,当β≥1时该几何成立,而常规能量得分在0<β<2时为严格适当。当d=1, β=1时,所有非平凡经验CRPS FullCP区域均为非空闭区间(m=1时可能为ℝ)。当1<β<2且m≥2时,通过显式可查导数界获得径向出口的Lipschitz控制与精确共形径向函数。结合方向根搜索与经典Lipschitz扩展,可得宽度不超过δ+2~L h_U的有证内/外径向包络,并提供同射线霍夫多夫距离保证。二维解析示例表明保持星形但非凸几何的重要性。分阶段二维研究发现证书略有收紧且频繁出现鲁棒非凸性证据,检测到的归一化径向偏离通常较小。该方法旨在用于低维多变量输出,而非高维扩展或运行时优化。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This note studies the geometry of full conformal prediction (FullCP) regions generated by an empirical energy-form pairwise score. Candidate-score convexity alone does not guarantee connected FullCP regions, even for empirical averages of losses convex in the candidate argument. For the energy-form score, each leave-one-out training comparison reduces exactly to a pairwise-dissimilarity sublevel condition. Under symmetry, a constant diagonal, a diagonal lower bound, and attainment of the associated Fréchet-type objective, all comparison regions share a minimizer; if they are convex, every nontrivial exact conformal region is star-shaped about that point. For power distances $ρ_β(x,y)=\|x-y\|^β$, this geometry holds for $β\ge1$, while the conventional energy score is strictly proper for $0<β<2$. For $d=1,β=1$, every nontrivial empirical-CRPS FullCP region is a nonempty closed interval (possibly $\mathbb R$ when $m=1$). For $1<β<2$ and $m\ge2$, explicit data-checkable derivative bounds give Lipschitz control of the radial exits and exact conformal radial function. Combined with directional root search and classical Lipschitz extensions, they yield certified inner and outer radial envelopes of width at most $δ+2\widetilde Lh_{\mathcal U}$ and same-ray Hausdorff guarantees. An analytic two-dimensional example shows why preserving star-shaped but nonconvex geometry can matter. A staged two-dimensional study finds modest but systematic tightening of the generic certificate and frequent robust nonconvexity witnesses, with detected normalized radial departures typically small. The method is intended for low-dimensional multivariate outputs rather than high-dimensional scaling or runtime improvement.
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