arXiv:2608.25258cs.LGcs.AI2026-08

提出可学习属性依赖结构的决策模型,支持干预效应的因果推演。

Neural-Bayesian Structure Learning for Discrete Choice Modeling

  • 联合优化结构学习与效用模型,通过可微分过程自动发现属性关系
  • 在首尔和伦敦数据上表现媲美传统模型,且结构符合行为逻辑
  • 支持从单个属性变化推演到出行者特征的全链路影响,适合政策评估

传统离散选择与机器学习模型多基于观测数据,将解释变量视为并行输入,缺乏对属性间关联调整的内在机制。本文提出神经-贝叶斯结构学习(Neural-BSL),将可微结构学习与基于随机效用的离散选择估计整合为单一可微流程。为避免互斥选择结果扭曲属性结构恢复,将实际选择保留在图外作为特定选项的效用比较,而属性结构与随机效用参数联合学习。学习得到的结构通过结构加权的属性交互进入选择模型,为下游属性干预传播提供结构基础。干预评估通过更新被干预属性,按拓扑顺序传播其模型隐含的下游变化,再重新计算效用与选择概率实现。该方法同时输出预测的模式份额响应及对应的下游出行者或行程属性调整。在首尔陈述偏好数据与伦敦揭示偏好数据上验证,Neural-BSL 在预测性能上媲美传统基准,同时恢复出行为一致的依赖结构。在各类政策情景下,通过学习结构传播干预,改变了预测的模式间重新分配,并揭示了背后出行者与行程特征的调整过程。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conventional discrete choice and machine learning models are estimated primarily from observational data and typically treat explanatory covariates as parallel inputs, providing no internal mechanism for determining how related attributes should adjust when one is deliberately changed. This paper proposes Neural-Bayesian Structure Learning (Neural-BSL), a framework coupling differentiable structure learning with random-utility-based discrete choice estimation in a single differentiable procedure. To prevent mutually exclusive choice outcome from distorting the recovered attribute structure, the observed choice is maintained outside the graph as an alternative-specific utility comparison, while the attribute structure and random-utility parameters are learned jointly. The learned structure enters the choice model through structure-weighted attribute interactions and provides the structural basis for propagating interventions through downstream attributes. An intervention is evaluated by updating the intervened attribute, propagating its model-implied downstream changes in topological order, and then recomputing utilities and choice probabilities. This yields both predicted mode-share responses and the associated changes in downstream traveler or trip attributes. We evaluate Neural-BSL using stated-preference data from Seoul and the revealed-preference data from London. Neural-BSL achieves predictive performance comparable to conventional benchmarks while recovering behaviorally coherent dependency structures. Across policy scenarios, propagating interventions through the learned structure changes the predicted redistribution across modes while exposing the downstream traveler and trip adjustments underlying those responses.

离散选择结构学习因果推断

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