arXiv:2608.25448physics.comp-phcs.LG2026-08

用机器学习划分光伏气候区,兼顾发电量和寿命,指导组件设计。

Energy Yield and Lifetime Climate Classification via Machine Learning for Optimizing Photovoltaic Module Design and Materials

论文配图:Energy Yield and Lifetime Climate Classification via Machine Learning for Optimizing Photovoltaic Module Design and Materials
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于机器学习融合光照与温度等12个特征,预测发电量和组件寿命。
  • 模型预测误差仅0.007MWh(发电量)和1.5年(寿命),精度高。
  • 划分出6大气候区,低气温大陆型气候综合收益最高,适合优化选址。

为可持续满足未来能源需求,光伏组件需部署于多样地理环境,其运行条件显著影响性能与系统设计。本文提出一种面向光伏应用的气候分类框架,采用多种机器学习技术,结合能量产出与气候相关的组件寿命退化,首次实现双目标预测。构建包含十二个输入特征及能量产出、组件寿命两个目标变量的插值数据集。特征重要性分析显示,年均水平面辐照度和环境温度是主要预测因子。最优回归模型对能量产出的均方根误差为0.007 MWh,对寿命预测误差为1.5年。基于特征重要性分数,采用分层聚类生成6个主气候区(热带、沙漠、大陆、温带、亚寒带、极地)及15个子区。分析表明,低温大陆气候具有最高的折现寿命能量产出。该结果可支持光伏组件优化、系统选址决策与性能对比研究。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

To resiliently and sustainably meet our future energy demand, photovoltaic (PV) modules must be deployed across a broad and diverse range of geographical regions with varying operating conditions. As these conditions strongly affect both performance and optimal system design, a dedicated PV-specific climate classification can be of great use. In this work, we develop a climate classification framework tailored to PV applications using a variety of machine learning (ML) techniques. Building on previous studies, our approach incorporates both energy yield, and for the first time, also the module lifetime with climate dependent degradation. We generate an interpolated dataset containing twelve input features and two target variables (i.e. energy yield and module lifetime). Feature importance analysis shows that annual global horizontal irradiation and ambient temperature are the most influential predictors. The most accurate regression model achieves root mean square errors (RMSE) of 0.007 MWh for energy yield and 1.5 years for lifetime prediction. The calculated feature importance scores are then integrated into a hierarchical clustering framework, resulting in 6 primary climate clusters (Tropical, Desert, Continental, Temperate, Boreal, and Polar) and 15 corresponding subclusters. Our analysis shows that the low temperature continental climate offers the highest discounted lifetime energy yield. These results can support a wide range of applications, including PV module optimization, system siting decisions, and comparative performance studies.

光伏机器学习气候分类寿命预测

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