arXiv:2608.25823cs.LGcs.MM2026-08

用可查询的连续场模型,实现任意时间点和分辨率的温度预测。

Learning Continuous Regional Temperature Fields with Lead-Time and Resolution Queries

论文配图:Learning Continuous Regional Temperature Fields with Lead-Time and Resolution Queries
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将预报时间与分辨率作为查询输入,统一生成连续温度场。
  • 在东南中国0-6小时数据集上,偏差降低17.0%,整体确定性精度最优。
  • 适合需要灵活时间/分辨率输出的气象服务与风险评估场景。

准确的区域近地表温度预报是短期天气服务与下游风险评估的基础。现有基于深度学习的区域预报模型通常仅生成固定时间步与网格上的未来帧,难以满足查询依赖的时间或分辨率需求。为突破这一限制,本文将区域T2M预报建模为条件化连续时空温度场评估,提出连续时空温度预报器(CSTF),一种将预报时长与输出分辨率作为显式查询输入的神经场模型。CSTF首先将多变量ERA5历史数据编码为隐式气象状态,再以坐标为基础解码出2米气温(T2M)场。空间位置、预报时长与输出分辨率均作为查询条件,支持标准小时预报、中间时长诊断与可调分辨率输出。为进一步保证跨查询的场一致性,设计了空间梯度、时间差分与尺度一致性正则项,分别约束区域热结构、逐时演变与跨分辨率一致性。在东南中国0-6小时ERA5-Land基准测试中,CSTF取得最佳综合确定性技能,偏差降低17.0%;全球范围诊断进一步验证了其灵活时长与分辨率可控推理能力。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate regional near-surface temperature forecasting is fundamental to short-range weather services and downstream risk assessment. Existing deep learning-based regional forecasters commonly produce a fixed set of future frames on a prescribed grid, limiting their use when forecast products must be evaluated at query-dependent lead times or display resolutions. To overcome these fixed-output constraints, we formulate regional T2M forecasting as query-conditioned continuous spatiotemporal temperature field evaluation and propose the Continuous Spatiotemporal Temperature Forecaster (CSTF), a neural field that turns forecast lead time and output resolution into explicit queries when evaluating 2-m temperature (T2M). Specifically, CSTF first encodes multivariable ERA5 histories into latent meteorological states and then decodes T2M as a coordinate-based field. Accordingly, spatial location, forecast lead time, and output resolution are introduced as queries, enabling standard hourly forecasts, intermediate lead-time diagnostics, and resolution-controllable outputs within a unified field-evaluation framework. Furthermore, to maintain coherence across flexible field queries, we design spatial-gradient, temporal-difference, and scale-consistency objectives that regularize regional thermal structures, lead-wise evolution, and cross-resolution agreement. Experiments on the Southeast China 0-6 h ERA5-Land benchmark demonstrate that CSTF achieves the best aggregate deterministic skill, including a 17.0 percent reduction in Bias, with global-scope diagnostics further illustrating flexible lead-time and resolution-controllable inference.

温度预报神经场可查询气象建模

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。