arXiv:2608.25858cs.CVcs.LG2026-08

用大模型条件扩散模型,更真实地生成高分辨率降水图

Precipitation Downscaling Using Foundation Model-Conditioned Diffusion

论文配图:Precipitation Downscaling Using Foundation Model-Conditioned Diffusion
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 用交叉注意力机制让大气候数据指导降水生成
  • 相比简单拼接,分布和极端天气模拟更逼真
  • 在数据少时仍表现良好,适合小样本场景

高分辨率降水场对水文影响评估至关重要,但全球气候模型输出过于粗糙且存在偏差,难以直接使用。基于扩散模型的统计降尺度方法有潜力,但大规模大气预测因子如何影响生成过程仍不明确。本文研究三种条件化策略:上采样后通道拼接、学习型卷积编码器的交叉注意力,以及使用预训练的Prithvi WxC气象基础模型的冻结编码器进行交叉注意力。在科罗拉多河盆地,所有策略均与无条件基线在相同条件下对比,采用概率、分布、谱和极端事件指标评估。通道拼接在点级CRPS和MSE上最低,但导致过度平滑,抑制强降水事件;交叉注意力显著提升分布真实性,小幅改善谱保真度。极端事件表现最佳:Prithvi-WxC条件模型保留了超过一半日降雨量>100mm的事件,尽管样本有限导致估计不确定。全数据集训练下,学习型卷积模型性能与基础模型相当,但计算开销更低;而使用Prithvi-WxC的模型仅需五年数据即可达到类似效果。结果表明,交叉注意力优于简单拼接,预训练基础模型表示在数据稀缺场景中具优势。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

High-resolution precipitation fields are essential for hydrological impact assessment, yet global climate model outputs are too coarse and biased for direct use. AI-based statistical downscaling with diffusion models offers a promising approach, but the mechanism by which large-scale atmospheric predictors condition generation remains largely unexplored. We investigate three conditioning strategies for a denoising diffusion probabilistic model applied to daily precipitation downscaling: channel concatenation of upsampled coarse predictors, cross-attention conditioning with a learned convolutional encoder, and cross-attention conditioning with the frozen encoder of the pretrained Prithvi WxC weather foundation model. All strategies are evaluated against an unconditioned baseline under identical conditions using probabilistic, distributional, spectral, and extreme-event metrics for the Colorado River Basin. Concatenation conditioning achieves the lowest point-wise CRPS and MSE, but tends to produce over-smoothed fields that suppress high-intensity events. In contrast, cross-attention conditioning provides substantially better distributional realism and modest improvements in spectral fidelity. Improvements are greatest for extremes: the Prithvi-WxC conditioned model retains over half of >100mm/day events, although estimates are uncertain due to limited samples. When trained on the full dataset, the learned convolutional model performs similarly to the foundation model-conditioned approach while requiring lower computational resources. However, the Prithvi-WxC-conditioned model achieves comparable performance with only five years of training data. These results indicate that cross-attention conditioning offers advantages over simple concatenation for probabilistic precipitation downscaling, and that pre-trained foundation model representations may offer benefits in data-limited settings.

降水降尺度扩散模型基础模型极端天气

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