用图神经网络捕捉期权波动率动态,提升预测精度与鲁棒性。
Graph-Based Modeling of Financial Volatility Dynamics

- 构建时空图模型,将波动率曲面转为带金融特征的动态节点图
- 在真实数据上实现最高0.473的R²,一年数据下仍优于视觉变压器
- 融合金融先验知识,对高频噪声和市场动荡有更强适应力
准确预测实现波动率(RV)对风险管理和衍生品定价至关重要。尽管隐含波动率(IV)曲面蕴含丰富信息,但现有方法将其视为静态图像,难以捕捉其内在动态。为此,我们提出金融感知时空图网络(FA-GSTN),将RV预测重构为对结构化金融对象演化的建模。FA-GSTN从IV曲面构建时空图序列,节点对应网格点,边编码自适应的空间(日内)与显式的时间(跨日)依赖关系。模型通过金融感知节点特征(如期权希腊值)融入领域知识,并借助多尺度时间平滑门与自适应鲁棒损失函数应对高频噪声。在大规模股票期权数据集上的综合评估显示,FA-GSTN达到新基准,预测准确率最高达R²=0.473。其数据效率突出,在仅用一年数据训练时,表现显著优于强基线视觉变换器(R²: 0.372 vs. 0.315)。此外,模型在2020–2021年市场压力时期仍具优异鲁棒性。消融实验验证了时空图结构、金融感知组件及噪声处理模块的关键作用。本工作凸显了显式建模时间动态与注入金融归纳偏置在精准、稳健波动率预测中的巨大优势。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate forecasting of realized volatility ($RV$) is crucial for risk management and derivatives pricing. Although the implied volatility ($IV$) surface offers rich informational content, prevailing methods that treat it as a static image fail to capture its inherent dynamics. To overcome this limitation, we propose the Finance-Aware Graph Spatio-Temporal Network (FA-GSTN), a novel architecture that reframes $RV$ forecasting as modeling the evolution of a structured financial object. FA-GSTN builds a spatio-temporal graph sequence from the $IV$ surface, where nodes correspond to grid points and edges encode adaptive spatial (intra-day) and explicit temporal (inter-day) dependencies. The model incorporates domain knowledge through finance-aware node features (e.g., option Greeks) and tackles high-frequency noise via a multi-scale temporal smoothing gate coupled with an adaptive robust loss function. Comprehensive evaluations on a large-scale equity options dataset show that FA-GSTN sets a new state of the art, delivering superior predictive accuracy ($R^2$ up to 0.473). It also demonstrates remarkable data efficiency, substantially outperforming strong Vision Transformer baselines when trained on only one year of data ($R^2$: 0.372 vs. 0.315). Furthermore, the model exhibits enhanced robustness during periods of market stress, such as 2020--2021. Ablation studies confirm the vital roles of the spatio-temporal graph structure, finance-aware components, and integrated noise-handling modules. Our work underscores the substantial benefits of explicitly modeling temporal dynamics and infusing financial inductive biases for accurate and robust volatility forecasting.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。