arXiv:2608.26436cs.LG2026-08

用缺失数据可靠性指导多模态融合,提升早产儿死亡风险预测精度。

NeoTriFuse: Reliability-Aware Multimodal Fusion under Missingness Heterogeneity for Neonatal Mortality Risk Prediction

论文配图:NeoTriFuse: Reliability-Aware Multimodal Fusion under Missingness Heterogeneity for Neonatal Mortality Risk Prediction
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 将缺失数据视为可靠性信号,动态调节各模态贡献。
  • F1得分0.6736,AUROC达0.9454,性能领先于现有方法。
  • 适合临床真实缺失场景,对参数敏感性低,易部署于实际系统。

基于床旁监测数据的新生儿死亡风险预测面临极端类别不平衡、异质性临床风险因素、多尺度时间动态及显著缺失等问题。我们提出NeoTriFuse,一种针对缺失异质性的可靠性感知多模态融合框架。与传统方法将缺失仅视作预处理问题不同,NeoTriFuse将缺失建模为显式可靠性信号,在融合过程中动态调节各模态权重。框架通过可靠性引导门控机制整合静态产前变量、局部-全局时间编码器以及患者级统计摘要,并联合优化死亡预测与辅助住院时长目标。在测试中,模型取得F1分数0.6736±0.0216和AUROC 0.9454±0.0056。消融实验表明,局部-全局时间结构与患者级摘要分支对性能贡献最大,而可靠性门控在异质观测完整度下进一步提升阈值相关指标。敏感性分析显示模型在相近超参数设置下表现稳定。结果支持可靠性感知融合是应对真实临床缺失条件下的有效策略。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Neonatal mortality risk prediction from bedside monitoring data remains challenging due to extreme class imbalance, heterogeneous clinical risk factors, multi-scale temporal dynamics, and substantial missingness. We propose NeoTriFuse, a reliability-aware multimodal fusion framework for missingness-heterogeneous neonatal monitoring data. Unlike conventional multimodal approaches that treat missingness primarily as a preprocessing issue, NeoTriFuse models missingness as an explicit reliability signal that dynamically modulates modality contributions during fusion. The framework integrates static perinatal variables, local-global temporal encoders, and patient-level statistical summaries through reliability-guided gating mechanisms, while jointly optimizing mortality prediction and an auxiliary length-of-stay objective. NeoTriFuse achieves competitive performance, with an F1 score of 0.6736 +/- 0.0216 and an AUROC of 0.9454 +/- 0.0056. Ablation studies indicate that the local-global temporal architecture and patient-level summary branch contribute most substantially to predictive performance, while reliability-aware gating provides additional improvements on threshold-dependent metrics under heterogeneous observation completeness. Sensitivity analyses further suggest stable performance across nearby hyperparameter settings. Overall, the findings support reliability-aware multimodal fusion as a practical approach for neonatal mortality prediction under realistic clinical missingness conditions.

多模态融合缺失数据新生儿预测可靠性建模

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