提出公平感知的共享单车需求预测模型,缓解新站点冷启动与资源分配不公问题。
Toward Equitable Low-Carbon Mobility: Fairness-Aware Demand Prediction for Expanding Bike-Sharing Systems

- 通过模拟网络扩展训练,缓解新站点缺乏历史数据带来的预测偏差。
- 在纽约和西雅图数据集上,预测精度优于现有方法,收入差异降低37%以上。
- 适合关注城市交通公平性与智能调度系统的研究人员和政策制定者。
共享单车系统是低碳城市出行的重要组成部分,但持续扩展带来了冷启动预测与资源分配公平性的双重挑战。新建站点缺乏历史骑行记录,导致图神经网络在动态网络上的训练与推理分布不一致。历史需求数据可能隐含结构性不平等——低收入社区骑行量低,往往反映的是基础设施可及性不足,而非真实需求弱。直接基于此类数据训练的模型可能加剧既有出行不平等。本文提出公平感知图神经网络 FairGIN,包含三个组件:扩张模拟增量训练在训练中随机模拟网络扩展,缩小冷启动分布差距;基于注意力的知识迁移结合站级自适应温度缩放与正交嵌入对齐,将数据丰富站点的表征迁移到数据稀疏的新站点;公平优化引入收入分层正则化与公平校准部署评分,支持更包容的站点布局。在纽约和西雅图的真实数据集上实验表明,FairGIN 在多种扩展场景下达到最先进预测精度,同时显著降低收入相关的出行差异,且不影响整体系统效率。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Bike-sharing systems are an important component of low-carbon urban mobility, but continued expansion creates challenges in both cold-start prediction and equitable resource allocation. Newly deployed stations lack historical ridership records, causing a mismatch between training and inference for graph-based models on evolving networks. Historical demand may also encode structural inequalities, as lower ridership in low-income neighborhoods can reflect limited infrastructure access rather than weak latent demand. Models trained directly on such data may therefore reinforce existing mobility disparities. We propose FairGIN, a fairness-aware graph neural network for demand prediction in expanding bike-sharing systems. FairGIN integrates three components. Expansion-Simulated Increment Training stochastically simulates network expansion during training to reduce the cold-start distribution gap. Attention-Based Knowledge Transfer combines station-adaptive temperature scaling with orthogonal embedding alignment to transfer representations from data-rich existing stations to data-sparse new stations. Fairness-Aware Optimization introduces income-stratified regularization and an equity-calibrated deployment score to support more inclusive station placement. Experiments on NYC and Seattle demonstrate that FairGIN achieves state-of-the-art predictive accuracy across diverse expansion scenarios while substantially reducing income-based disparities without compromising overall system efficiency.
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