arXiv:2608.27076cs.LGq-fin.CP2026-08

用跨周期贝叶斯优化提升股票信号鲁棒性,混合模型年化收益超51%。

Tabular Deep Learning for Algorithmic Trading: Cross-Regime Bayesian Optimisation for Equity Signal Generation

论文配图:Tabular Deep Learning for Algorithmic Trading: Cross-Regime Bayesian Optimisation for Equity Signal Generation
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 基于贝叶斯优化在不同市场周期中选择超参数,提升信号泛化能力。
  • 融合XGBoost与TabNet的混合模型实现年化51.26%收益,夏普比2.44。
  • 适合关注量化交易、特征工程与模型集成的从业者参考。

算法交易市场规模已超过200亿美元,微小的信号稳健性提升即可带来显著经济回报。现有股权预测模型在超参数选择时未显式考虑市场周期鲁棒性。研究对约300只大盘美股、长达11年的日度数据训练了五类模型,采用贝叶斯优化以跨三个统计上不同的市场周期的交易表现为目标进行调参。结果表明,具备周期鲁棒性的超参数选择可实现样本外泛化:信号精度在整个测试期四个季度均高于随机基准;在模拟输入噪声下,投资组合绩效缓慢下降,直至超过阈值后才崩溃。单一表格式深度学习架构未能超越梯度提升树,但通过秩聚合融合XGBoost与TabNet形成的混合集成模型,实现了年化收益率51.26%、夏普比率2.44,且CAPM alpha为0.423(p=0.011),具有统计显著性。近零贝塔表明超额收益来自选股能力而非市场暴露。一旦技术与基本面特征被纳入,另类数据作用减弱,且在空头方向影响更强,不同模型类别表现差异明显。交互式应用支持实时探索结果,接入实时数据即完成实用部署。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Algorithmic trading now represents a market exceeding $20 billion, where even marginal gains in signal robustness can translate into economically significant returns. Existing evaluations of equity prediction models do not explicitly target regime robustness during hyperparameter selection. Five model classes are trained on daily observations from approximately 300 large-cap US equities over eleven years, with Bayesian optimisation configured to target trading performance across three statistically different market regimes. Regime-robust hyperparameter selection is associated with out-of-sample generalisation, as signal precision remains above the random baseline across all four quarters of the test period, and portfolio performance slowly degrades under simulated input noise before collapsing beyond a defined threshold. No individual tabular deep learning architecture outperforms gradient-boosted trees, but combining XGBoost and TabNet using rank aggregation produces a Hybrid ensemble with an annualised return of 51.26%, a Sharpe ratio of 2.44, and a statistically significant CAPM alpha of 0.423 (p = 0.011). A near-zero beta indicates this outperformance is driven by stock selection, not market exposure. Alternative data plays a secondary role once technical and fundamental features are accounted for, as well as contributing more strongly on the short side than the long, and varies by model class. An interactive application makes these results explorable in real time, with live data integration the remaining step toward practical deployment.

量化交易贝叶斯优化混合模型股票预测

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