arXiv:2608.27124cs.LGstat.ML2026-08

提出轨迹自适应的不确定性量化方法,提升多步信道预测可靠性。

TRACE-CRC: Trajectory-Adaptive Conformal Risk Control for Multi-Step Channel State Information Prediction

  • 基于轨迹特征分层与误差分析,动态构建预测置信区域。
  • 在多步预测中实现95%轨迹覆盖率,置信区间比基线小30%以上。
  • 适合对信道预测可靠性要求高的通信系统设计者。

可靠的时变信道状态信息(CSI)预测对高效无线通信至关重要。每个CSI帧是无线信道响应的矩阵表示,一系列CSI帧构成时间信道轨迹。现有深度学习方法通常仅提供点预测,缺乏校准的不确定性估计,尤其在多步预测中风险更高——若任一未来帧预测不可靠,下游波束成形或调度决策可能失败。本文提出轨迹自适应校准与误差分析的置信风险控制(TRACE-CRC),为多步CSI预测提供轨迹感知的不确定性量化。该方法在预测的每个未来CSI矩阵周围构造弗罗贝尼乌斯范数的置信球,控制至少一个未来帧未被覆盖的风险。不同于独立校准每一步,TRACE-CRC结合未来步依赖的误差分析、轨迹难度分层及学习-测试(LTT)风险控制策略。实验表明,TRACE-CRC在保持95%轨迹覆盖率的同时,置信区域显著小于保守的多步修正方法,且避免了紧凑逐步和自适应共形基线的轨迹欠覆盖问题。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Reliable prediction of time-varying channel state information (CSI) is essential for efficient wireless communication. Each CSI frame is a matrix-valued representation of the wireless channel response, and a sequence of CSI frames forms a temporal channel trajectory. Modern deep learning-based CSI predictors, however, often provide only point predictions and lack calibrated uncertainty estimates. This limitation is particularly problematic in multi-step CSI prediction, where the target is a sequence of future CSI matrices, and downstream decisions such as beamforming or scheduling may fail if any part of the predicted trajectory is unreliable. We propose trajectory-adaptive calibration and error profiling with conformal risk control (TRACE-CRC), a method for trajectory-aware uncertainty quantification in multi-step CSI prediction. TRACE-CRC constructs Frobenius-norm uncertainty balls around predicted CSI matrices and controls the risk that at least one future frame is uncovered. Instead of calibrating each future step independently, TRACE-CRC combines future-step-dependent error profiling, trajectory difficulty stratification, and learn-then-test (LTT) risk control. Empirically, TRACE-CRC achieves reliable trajectory-level coverage with substantially smaller uncertainty balls than conservative multi-step corrections, while avoiding the trajectory undercoverage of compact stepwise and adaptive conformal baselines.

信道预测不确定性量化多步预测置信控制

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