arXiv:2608.27187cs.LGcs.SI2026-08

动态社交网络中,精准分离个体与同伴影响的新方法。

When Interference Graphs Evolve: Doubly Robust Estimation of Dynamic Peer Effects

论文配图:When Interference Graphs Evolve: Doubly Robust Estimation of Dynamic Peer Effects
图 1 · 摘自论文原文
  • 构建时序聚合的同伴暴露与网络演化摘要,定义四类对比效应。
  • 提出DynaNet-DR估计器,在部分模型正确时仍保持结果稳定。
  • 适用于动态网络下的因果推断,尤其适合社会行为研究者。

当互动图谱随时间演变时,个体与同伴影响难以准确估计,因预分配网络历史、动态同伴暴露及分配后网络变化具有不同因果作用。本文提出受控对比框架,将潜在结果索引为自身处理、时序聚合的同伴暴露以及分配后演化摘要。由此产生的均值差异定义了自身处理、同伴暴露、受控网络演化及联合受控对比,而非中介分解。我们开发了动态网络双重稳健估计器(DynaNet-DR),结合时序因子化倾向得分与归一化增广。在一致性、摘要充分性、序列可交换性、正性、扰动收敛及弱依赖条件下,其标准估计器在结果回归或倾向估计任一一致时仍具一致性。报告实现包含代表性得分预测、固定截断与有限样本稳定性优化。基于真实时序图序列的半合成基准测试显示,该方法在完整效应估计上表现优越。这些测试评估的是摘要索引对比,而非反事实边生成;数学问答平台MathOverflow的研究案例为满足假设的观察性示例。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Peer effects are difficult to estimate when interaction graphs evolve because pre-assignment network history, dynamic peer exposure, and post-assignment network change have distinct causal roles. We introduce a controlled contrast framework that indexes potential outcomes by own treatment, temporally aggregated peer exposure, and a post-assignment evolution summary. Differences between the resulting means define own-treatment, peer-exposure, controlled network-evolution, and joint controlled contrasts rather than a mediation decomposition. We develop the Dynamic Network Doubly Robust estimator, DynaNet-DR, which combines a temporally factorized propensity with normalized augmentation. Under consistency, summary sufficiency, sequential exchangeability, positivity, nuisance convergence, and weak dependence, its canonical estimator is consistent when either the outcome regression or the propensity estimator is consistent. The reported implementation adds representative-score prediction, fixed clipping, and finite-sample stabilization. Semi-synthetic benchmarks on fixed real temporal graph sequences show favorable estimation accuracy among methods targeting the full profile. These benchmarks assess summary-indexed contrasts rather than counterfactual edge generation, and the MathOverflow study is an observational illustration under the stated assumptions.

因果推断动态网络同伴效应

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