改进联邦学习初始化,提升异构用电负荷预测精度。
Initialization Is Critical: Advancing Federated Short-Term Load Forecasting under Load Heterogeneity via Model Initialization

- 从全局和局部视角设计初始化策略,缓解客户端数据差异问题。
- 实测显示客户端漂移减少,收敛更快,预测误差降低。
- 无需改动现有框架,适合电力系统隐私保护场景使用。
短期负荷预测(STLF)为现代电力系统诸多应用提供关键信息。然而,高精度预测通常依赖分布式用户的细粒度智能电表数据,引发日益严重的数据隐私担忧。联邦学习(FL)因此成为一种有前景的隐私保护型STLF范式。本文揭示了客户端负荷数据存在结构性异质性:客户端对外部因素响应不同,且具有不同的时间负荷特征,这会损害联邦学习中的预测性能。为此,本文研究模型初始化在联邦STLF中的作用,提出两种来自全局与局部视角的初始化策略。针对全局模型初始化,当有辅助公开负荷数据时,采用预训练初始化策略,在联邦训练前初始化全局模型,从而减少训练过程中的客户端漂移。针对局部模型初始化,提出SLIAvg——一种序列化本地初始化方法,使参与客户端在每轮通信中从逐步适应的模型开始,促进更一致的训练过程。由于所提策略仅修改初始化环节,兼容大多数现有联邦学习框架及隐私增强技术。基于真实智能电表数据,使用两种代表性预测架构的实验表明,该策略显著提升预测性能,表现为客户端漂移降低、收敛行为改善、预测误差下降。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Short-term load forecasting (STLF) provides essential information for numerous applications in modern power systems. However, accurate STLF often relies on fine-grained smart-meter data from distributed users, raising increasing concerns about data privacy. Federated learning (FL) has therefore emerged as a promising privacy-preserving paradigm for STLF. Nevertheless, this paper reveals structured heterogeneity in clients' load data. Specifically, clients exhibit different responses to exogenous factors and distinct temporal load profiles, which can degrade forecasting performance in FL. To mitigate these issues, this paper studies the role of model initialization in federated STLF, and proposes two initialization strategies from global and local perspectives. For global model initialization, when auxiliary public load data are available, a pretrained initialization strategy is developed to initialize the global model before federated training, thereby reducing client drift during the training process. For local model initialization, we propose SLIAvg, a sequential local initialization strategy that promotes a more consistent training process by allowing participating clients to start from progressively adapted models within each communication round. Since the proposed strategies only modify the initialization process, they are compatible with most existing FL frameworks and privacy-enhancing techniques. Experiments on real smart-meter data with two representative forecasting architectures demonstrate that the proposed strategies effectively improve forecasting performance, as evidenced by reduced client drift, improved convergence behavior, and lower forecasting errors.
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